Will Putin be forced to consider a dangerous escalation with NATO? | policy

The war in Ukraine has reached a stage of mutual exhaustion, as Russia achieves limited field gains in exchange for large human losses, amid daily estimates of the number of dead and wounded reaching about a thousand people, at a time when the influx of new recruits does not cover these losses.

In this context, writer David Blair believes – in an analysis in the British newspaper The Telegraph – that Russian President Vladimir Putin may face increasing pressure that will push him to consider what is known as “horizontal escalation,” that is, expanding the scope of the conflict to include other countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), such as Poland, in an attempt to break the military stalemate that Russia is suffering from.

The analysis indicates that, as a result of the state of exhaustion, the Kremlin finds itself facing a worsening military impasse that pushes it to search for options outside the traditional battlefield, with the aim of dividing NATO’s ranks over how to respond, and creating a division between the United States and Europe.

In this context, the writer raises the idea that some circles within the Russian military leadership may propose expanding the war by targeting the so-called “back area” of Ukraine, that is, the European support network that provides funding and weapons to Kiev, especially since Ukraine relies heavily on European support, while Russia, in turn, is exposed to internal attacks targeting its military and energy structure.

The article adds that Russia is already carrying out “hybrid warfare” operations in Europe, including acts of sabotage, arson, electronic jamming, and indirect attacks, but it has not achieved the strategic goal of stopping Western support for Ukraine. On the contrary, it has contributed to strengthening this support in some cases.

Alliance cohesion test

It also indicates that the relative decline in American support during the administration of President Donald Trump has made Europe bear a greater burden in supporting Kiev, which may tempt Putin to move from indirect war to limited military strikes against countries in NATO, with the aim of testing the cohesion of the alliance and provoking a division between the United States and Europe.

Poland presents as one of the most prominent possible scenarios, whether through drone attacks on infrastructure, limited operations, or even a small ground incursion from Belarus or Kaliningrad.

The continued state of stalemate and attrition may eventually push Putin to consider a broader escalation beyond the confines of the current war

Sources close to Polish President Karol Navrotsky reported that Russia may target vital infrastructure in Poland or carry out a limited ground incursion, based on warnings issued by American officials.

However, the article notes that these scenarios carry significant risks, because a direct attack on a NATO member state might trigger a rapid and decisive response, might not pass through the Alliance’s traditional consultation mechanisms, and such an escalation might backfire by strengthening NATO unity and increasing rather than weakening military support for Ukraine.

The writer concludes that Putin, despite these pressures, is still clinging to the option of trying to achieve victory within Ukraine itself, but the continued state of stalemate and attrition may eventually push him to consider a broader escalation outside the borders of the current war, which makes the risk of expanding the conflict with NATO a real possibility, even if it is not decisively imminent.