Published 07.09
Russia is suffering from an acute shortage of new soldiers. But lieutenant colonel Johan Huovinen believes that the Kremlin can mobilize more Russians for the war already this autumn.
– That would put pressure, he says.
The last time Russia carried out a major mobilization, meaning that you more or less force soldiers in, was in the fall of 2022. At that time, 300,000 people were mobilized.
Since then, the country’s leader Vladimir Putin has instead forced Russians to enlist voluntarily, including through lucrative contracts.
Fewer and fewer sign contracts
But it’s getting harder and harder. In the last quarter of last year, the number of Russians signing contracts with the military fell by 35 percent, according to calculations by Istories, a Russian investigative journalism site in exile. And according to analyst Janis Kluge, who runs the Russianomics blog, 800-1,000 Russians signed contracts every day in the first quarter of the year. That is 20 percent less than during the same period last year.
At the same time, the Russian soldiers are taking less and less ground at the front. In June, the Russians advanced an average of 3.79 square kilometers per day, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the United States.
“A rate far below the Russian advance in August 2025,” ISW writes in an analysis.
Military expert and lieutenant colonel Johan Huovinen says he is convinced that Russia needs to mobilize more soldiers.
– In order to get a military decision on the battlefield, it has to. That would put pressure on the front, he tells TT.
Deeply unpopular
At the same time, the Russian exile media Istories and Vjorstka, citing a number of sources close to the presidential rule and the Russian security apparatus, report that a new mobilization is being discussed in the corridors of power in Moscow.
The sources stress that no decision has been made. Johan Huovinen believes that a decision can come after the Russian Duma elections in September.
But such a decision would be deeply unpopular with Russians, as reflected in their Internet behavior.
The exiled Russian news site Meduza writes that during one week in June, 137,000 searches were made on Yandex – Russia’s most popular search engine – about when the war against Ukraine will end. Most such searches were made in Moscow and St. Petersburg. These are regions that the Kremlin prioritizes but still failed to protect against Ukraine’s long-range attacks, ISW writes.
In Ukraine, Russia seems to be, according to Huovinen, putting most of its effort into trying to conquer more areas in Donetsk County. Bloody battles are going on for the town of Kostjantynivka.
– If the Russians were to control a larger part of Donetsk County, Putin would probably be able to declare some type of military victory, he says.
