Published On 7/3/2026
Although the US strategic oil reserve fell to its lowest levels in more than 4 decades, this was not reflected in the form of increasing concerns about US energy security, but rather came at a time when the markets regained a measure of calm with the decline of supply risks and the decline in global crude prices.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the strategic reserve declined to about 326 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983, after 5.5 million barrels were withdrawn within a week. Gasoline stocks also decreased by about 2.3 million barrels with the rise in seasonal demand for fuel.
These numbers reflect the US administration’s continued reliance on reserves to calm markets and limit rising fuel prices, coinciding with increasing pressure on energy companies to reduce gasoline prices ahead of the holiday season, which is witnessing a significant increase in travel and consumption.
Oil and energy affairs expert Amer Al-Shobaki believes that the decline in reserves to this level seems remarkable from a digital standpoint, but it does not necessarily mean a decline in the United States’ ability to confront any potential disturbances in the oil markets or in global supply routes.
He points out that the American energy market is radically different from what it was four decades ago, as the United States has become the largest oil producer in the world with a production approaching 14 million barrels per day, in addition to having the largest refining capacity, which gives it greater flexibility in managing the market.
He adds that the US administration was able, during the peak of the crisis, to use reserves to limit the rise in prices, while it is currently seeking to achieve a balance between rebuilding inventory and easing the burden on the consumer, which also helps curb inflation and creates conditions for lowering interest rates.
Multiple tools
Al-Shoubaki confirms that the US President does not have the authority to impose fuel prices on companies, but he has regulatory and legal tools to confront monopoly and manipulation, after gasoline prices did not decline at the same pace as oil prices declined during the last period.
He adds that this policy is not limited to the United States, as it is also adopted by other Western countries through regulatory agencies that periodically publish price data and profit margins, allowing for the detection of any monopolistic practices and obliging companies to reflect the decline in crude prices on the final consumer.
The American bet is not limited to oversight, as Al-Shobaki explains that a large portion of the oil withdrawn from the reserve was not a permanent sale, but rather took place within the framework of exchange operations with companies, which means that these quantities will gradually return to government reservoirs during the coming period.
He also points out that Washington is anticipating a decline in oil prices to buy crude oil and refill the reserve at a lower cost, taking advantage of the price difference, which is a policy that combines maintaining energy security and achieving financial gains for the US treasury.
The market is changing
These data coincide with broader shifts in the global oil market, as informed sources expect that the OPEC+ alliance will approve a new increase in production targets by about 188 thousand barrels per day as of August, thus continuing the gradual retreat from the voluntary cuts that began to be implemented in 2023.
These expectations came after the markets regained a degree of stability with the recovery of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and an increase in the production of a number of producers, in addition to the weakness of Chinese imports, which pushed oil prices to decline and lose most of the gains they recorded during the war period.
Al-Shoubaki believes that the extensive withdrawal from the US reserve during the past months contributed to pumping more than one million additional barrels per day into the markets, which played an important role in limiting the rise in prices and reducing the pressures that were threatening the global economy.
He adds that the United States is no longer just the largest consumer of oil, but has also become the largest producer, and in many periods the largest exporter of oil and its derivatives, a shift that made its influence on global market balances approach that of major producers.
