Published On 2/7/2026
The indirect Doha negotiations between Iran and the United States, which took place through Qatari and Pakistani mediation, brought tangible progress in formulating understandings for the next stage, culminating in an agreement on a temporary military truce for a week.
This truce coincides with internal arrangements in both countries, as the United States commemorates the 250th anniversary of its independence, while Iran mourns the funeral of its late guide, Ali Khamenei. Despite this temporary relief, the question remains as to whether this calm is merely a temporary mechanism to control events or a prelude to the return of military escalation missiles once the week is over.
Gains and accounts
According to Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the current truce may continue if it proves effective for the parties, pointing to crucial messages conveyed by Washington envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff through the Qatari mediator to the Iranians.
These messages confirm – as Makki says to the “Niqash Al Saaa” program – that the returns that Tehran will reap from the memorandum of understanding, especially in the nuclear part and the sale of oil, far exceed the returns from the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington warning that any violations in Hormuz may destroy the entire memorandum.
Regarding the financial file and the alternatives proposed, Makki explains that the understandings indicate the release of $3 billion instead of $6 billion, through restricted bank accounts that are open for purchases and payments without handing over cash, which is a formula acceptable to Iran and does not oblige it to buy from the American market.
In the regional context, the Gulf parties began discussions about the arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz after 60 days to formulate an initiative in this regard, in light of Iran’s awareness that the memorandum gave it the authority to consult with the countries of the region while reserving the right to decide for itself, while the data indicate that the Hormuz and Lebanon files – despite the continued violations and the Israeli occupation – will not affect the continuation of the negotiations, according to Makki.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid Al-Ansari announced that Witkopf and Kushner are in Doha to meet with mediators and discuss the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding the implementation of the memorandum of understanding.
The 60-day dilemma
For his part, Director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies, Muhammad Saleh Sedqian, highlights the legal obstacles and differing positions, as the US government faces restrictions from Congress, which prohibits financial dealings and sales to Iran legally.
Sadiqian quotes Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Gharibabadi as confirming that the 60-day deadline has not yet begun, pending the completion of the appropriate atmosphere to begin the executive steps.
He points out that there is a paradox in assessing the positions, as the American press talks about President Donald Trump’s openness to extending the deadline to 90 or 200 days, which reflects American optimism aimed at stabilizing the markets, matched by continued Iranian pessimism and caution expressed by officials in a way devoid of comfort regarding completing the required conditions.
“status quo” strategy
In reading the horizon of this breakthrough that was forged under the dust of confrontation, Middle East politics expert Mahjoub Al-Zwairi believes that activating the direct hotline and releasing the $3 billion collides with what he calls the “strategy of maintaining the status quo” followed by the concerned parties.
According to Zweiri, this strategy makes them closer to returning to confrontation than continuing to negotiate, despite their lack of appetite for risk or desire for open war. He pointed out that the features of this structural hesitation are as follows:
- America: It is hesitant to take concrete steps to lift sanctions, and is also reluctant to put pressure on Israel to achieve a breakthrough in southern Lebanon.
- Iran: It shows clear reluctance to take decisive steps related to opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Al-Zwairi concludes that the lack of confidence between the two parties regarding commitments after the 60-day deadline will make the negotiations proceed “like a turtle,” achieving limited achievements, which means that continuing the strategy of maintaining the status quo would explode the negotiation process at any moment, without this necessarily leading to a state of comprehensive war.
On June 17, the United States and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, in preparation for the second phase of negotiations within 60 days with the aim of reaching a final agreement.
