Published On 1/7/2026
The European continent is preparing to welcome the coming winter amid signs of a severe energy crisis, fueled by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the approaching European Union ban on Russian gas imports early next year.
This geopolitical intersection has placed European gas markets facing worrying data that warns of a drop in stocks to their lowest levels in about 15 years, prompting the European Commission to alert and urge the bloc’s countries to enhance the security of their supplies before the severe cold is imminent.
Stocks and prices
Current data show a clear gap in the path of European energy security compared to previous years, and the seriousness of the scene is evident in the following indicators:
- Current storage levels: It stands at only about 48%, with expectations of reaching 76% by the end of the refilling season next October.
- Ignition prices: The current average price has jumped to 42 euros per megawatt hour, compared to 31 euros before the war, noting that prices peaked in March, exceeding 60 euros.
Indirect effect
In analyzing the dimensions of the crisis, the expert in oil and energy affairs, Amer Al-Shoubaki, explains that the impact of the disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz on Europe was not direct, as the Old Continent depends on it by less than 10%.
However, the indirect impact was large and profound, as the turmoil caused a scarcity of supply in the global liquefied gas market and raised its prices, making ships heading to Europe face an Asian competitor who paid a higher price, which explains why European stocks reached their lowest levels historically.
Based on this reality, Al-Shoubaki believes that Europe is trapped between two options, “the most bitter of which”:
- Continuing with low inventories: And risking energy security and heating Europeans during the winter.
- Buying at high prices: To fill stocks, which directly reflects on inflation rates and stressed government budgets.
Al-Shoubaki believes that alternative energy projects in Europe have remained unstable and unreliable, warning that the disruption of wind energy in the winter may force the continent to consume larger quantities that will deplete its remaining reserves, and therefore it is obligated to fill it to avoid this trap.
Worst case scenario
The expert in oil and energy affairs points out that Europe emerging from last winter with low reserves (less than 30%) threatens to cause economic disruption and social unrest if the price rise affects citizens and families.
However, if governments bear the cost – according to Al-Shoubaki – this will constitute an additional financial effort that comes after a series of successive crises, starting with the Corona pandemic, passing through energy subsidies during the Russian-Ukrainian war, all the way to inflation rates and high interest rates.
In a forward-looking view, Al-Shobaki concludes that the gas market is witnessing a phased shift in global energy security that will not return to normal before 2027, due to the increasing demand for less emitting gas and the cost of alternatives such as coal and diesel.
He warns that the worst scenario – if Gulf shipments continue to be halted or limited – will threaten to halt entire economic sectors in Europe and Asia, in addition to the impact later extending to the technology sectors and the food file due to materials associated with the gas, such as sulfur and helium.
