Published on 6/30/2026
Before the start of the 2026 World Cup, Spain was at the top of the list of favorites to win the title. But with the end of the group stage, the equation changed completely, after the French national team imposed itself as the first candidate to ascend to the podium, according to the latest statistical models issued by Opta and Football Meets Data.
Opta’s supercomputer ran 25,000 simulations of the tournament’s course, concluding that France had the highest chance of winning the title at 18.83%, after achieving a full score in the group stage and presenting one of the strongest performances in the tournament.
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The results of the Football Mets Data platform did not differ much, as it also placed the “Roosters” at the top of the candidates, confirming that the French team has become the most convincing team so far.
A final that brings back memories of the 2022 World Cup?
Football Mets Data forecasts indicate that the most likely scenario is a new final bringing together France and Argentina, in a rematch of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, by 8%.
The chances of a final between Spain and Argentina come next (6.5%), then France and England (5.8%), and England and Spain (4.7%), while the chance of holding a final between France and Brazil is 4.1%.
France catches the eye
France’s rise to the top of the nominations was not limited to the language of numbers, but the team imposed itself inside the green rectangle thanks to strong offensive performances during the group stage, which received wide praise from international media and analysts.
Former Swedish star Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the current analyst for Fox Sports, described the French team as “the most prominent candidate to win the World Cup,” while betting companies were quick to adjust their predictions, placing France at the top of the title contenders after Spain was at the top of the list before the start of the tournament.
Argentina is pursuing…and Spain is retreating
Despite losing the top spot in the nominations, Argentina remains France’s closest competitor with a percentage of 16.52%, driven by the remarkable brilliance of its captain Lionel Messi, who scored six goals during the group stage.
On the other hand, Spain fell to third place with a rate of 12.91%, after losing the starting advantage, while England came in fourth with a rate of 9.93%.
As for the rest of the teams, their chances appear to be much lower, as Brazil’s winning percentage is 6.60%, followed by Portugal (4.76%), then the Netherlands (4.72%) and Germany (4.33%) before being eliminated early in the round of 32 by Paraguay.
Although these expectations reflect the current reality of the tournament, the knockout stage does not recognize theoretical calculations, as a single goal or individual error may overturn all expectations and change the identity of the 2026 World Cup champion.
