Published on 6/26/2026
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has witnessed a gradual return after a period of tension and escalation, as the number of tankers and commercial ships passing through has increased, at a time when navigation indicators are still below pre-crisis levels, amid continued caution in transit operations and disparities in the use of alternative routes for transporting oil and goods.
Asma Al-Naim says, in a report she prepared for Al Jazeera, that navigational estimates indicate that oil flows through the strait may not exceed 70% of their previous rates in the first stage, with some Gulf countries continuing to rely on pipelines and alternative corridors.
Before the crisis, more than 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily, in addition to about 125 ships between oil, gas, fertilizer tankers, and various cargo ships, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
During the peak of the escalation, navigation traffic declined by about 90% from its usual levels, before it began to gradually improve following the announcement of the Iranian-American memorandum of understanding, which opened the way for the reorganization of maritime traffic in the region.
Data from the Kepler maritime navigation analysis platform, monitored by the data unit on the island, showed that the strait witnessed the crossing of about 95 million barrels of oil and its derivatives during the recent period, with a daily average of approximately 9 million barrels, compared to less than 3 million barrels per day before the signing of the memorandum of understanding.
Since the announcement of the agreement, about 283 ships have crossed the strait, distributed among 28 ships that crossed the international corridor, 76 that crossed the Iranian corridor, and 133 via unspecified routes, while the southern corridor adjacent to the Omani coasts recently emerged, which recorded the crossing of 46 ships in just 3 days.
Plan to evacuate sailors
Despite this relative recovery, the military presence is still present in the region, as US Central Command confirms that two aircraft carriers, including the USS George Bush, are continuing their operations in the Arabian Sea to ensure freedom of navigation.
NATO also announced the deployment of European naval vessels near the strait to contribute to mine clearance operations and secure the passage of ships, which reflects the widening circle of international interest in the security of Hormuz.
In the humanitarian context, the United Nations began implementing a plan to evacuate about 11,000 sailors stranded on board between 500 and 600 ships, in light of the persistence of some dangers in parts of traditional passages, according to reports from the International Maritime Organization, which prompted the maintenance of temporary passages and additional maritime guidance procedures.
On the political and economic level, discussions are still ongoing about the rules that will govern the Strait in the next stage, with the United States adhering to the principle of freedom of transit and refusing to impose fees on traffic in international corridors.
On the other hand, Iranian Parliament Speaker Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf confirmed that the memorandum of understanding stipulated that Iran would receive sums in exchange for providing services to ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to Tehran’s efforts to restore its oil exports and enhance its presence in Asian markets.
For its part, the Sultanate of Oman, as a practical guarantor of the southern corridor, announced that the crossing is carried out in coordination with the International Maritime Organization, while Qatar stressed the importance of establishing direct channels of communication between the countries of the region to avoid any escalation, stressing that the management of the strait cannot be in the hands of one party, but rather within a broader regional understanding that includes the Gulf states and Iran.
Questions remain open about the future of this vital corridor, between a model similar to the Strait of Malacca as a natural international port managed by regional arrangements without fees, or a model closer to the Panama Canal with central management and specific transit fees, in light of the radical difference between the geographical nature of the Strait and the experiences of artificial corridors.
