Oil falls with the return of Hormuz tankers, and gold rebounds above $4,000 economy

Oil prices fell in trading today, Friday, heading towards sharp weekly losses, with part of the risk premium receding after the resumption of the exit of stranded oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, while gold futures moved in a narrow range above the level of $4,000 per ounce under pressure from the dollar and expectations of a tightening of US monetary policy.

At the time of writing these lines, Brent crude fell 2.29% to $73.54 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.41% to $70.18 per barrel.

Partial return to Bohmuz

The two benchmarks rose by more than 2% in yesterday’s trading, Thursday, after a cargo ship was hit by an unknown missile near Oman, which prompted the United Nations International Maritime Organization to suspend a voluntary evacuation program for ships and sailors from the Strait of Hormuz region.

Reuters quoted US officials as saying that Iran fired on the cargo ship while it was trying to cross the Strait. On the other hand, the Iranian authorities said that the security of ships sailing outside the specified routes in the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore said that the markets will closely monitor whether tanker traffic will resume normally, or whether the recent obstacles will push producers to wait on the planned increases in production.

Shipping data reported by Reuters indicate that crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz rose this week to the highest level since the start of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran on February 28, after the ceasefire agreement reopened the vital waterway.

But the return of traffic is still partial, as the total traffic through the strait still represents a limited portion of a daily average of about 125 ships before the outbreak of the conflict.

The importance of the Strait lies in the fact that it was transporting about 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids in 2024, equivalent to about 20% of global consumption.

Two earthquakes that struck Venezuela raised limited concerns about supplies, although preliminary assessments of workers in the oil, gas and refining infrastructure showed that direct damage to major facilities was still limited, while power outages raised questions about the country’s ability to maintain production close to 1.2 million barrels per day.

The dollar is pressing

In the precious metals market, gold rose in spot transactions by 0.24% to $4,036.78 per ounce at the time of writing these lines, after falling earlier in the week below the $4,000 level for the first time since November 2025. Silver also stabilized near $57.97 per ounce.

Despite this limited rebound, gold is heading for a fourth weekly loss, with continued pressure on the dollar and expectations that US interest rates will remain high or be raised at a faster pace to curb inflation.

The dollar index fell slightly to 101.41 points at the time of writing these lines, but it remained close to its highest levels since May 2025, and is heading for gains for the second week in a row, which increases the cost of dollar-denominated gold for holders of other currencies.

Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 4.1% on an annual basis in May, compared to 3.8% in April, indicating continued price pressures despite the decline in oil during the week.

In the currency market, the yen hovered near its lowest levels in decades, as the dollar recorded 161.69 yen at the time of writing these lines, close to the level of 161.96 yen, which will push the Japanese currency to its weakest levels since 1986. The euro also recorded $1.1375, and the British pound $1.3192.