The “gas” that was choked by the Iran war… How did it affect the tables of the poor around the world? | economy

With the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global food security received a severe shock due to the cessation of a large part of the fertilizer supplies that pass through the region’s waters.

The fertilizer industry represents the backbone of agriculture, and is closely linked to natural gas, which Ahmed Marzouk said, in a report to Al Jazeera, represents a cornerstone in the manufacture of essential nitrogen fertilizers in agriculture and grain production.

Given the world’s heavy dependence on Gulf natural gas, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to major disruption in the global fertilizer market, including countries far from the war zone.

This turmoil confirmed the great interconnectedness of the global economy, regardless of distances, and prompted international organizations to warn of the repercussions on the future of food production, especially on fragile states. From the Strait of Hormuz to wheat fields to family tables, the fertilizer shock resonated, and the navigation crisis placed its burden on the tables of the poor.

Interconnected chain

From gas fields to the bread table extends a long, interconnected chain. Natural gas, from which ammonia and urea are produced, represents 70% of the inputs to the ammonia industry, which is the basis for all nitrogen fertilizers.

The region contributes to the production of about a third of global fertilizer production (33% of production), and most of these fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz to farms all over the world, where fertilizers represent 54% of the costs of producing basic food components, especially grains.

The availability and scarcity of grains determine the prices of basic foods in the markets because they represent about 36% of the components of the global food basket, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Thus, an invisible thread extends between the gas fields in the Gulf and the wheat fields in the far reaches of the earth, which means that the interruption of one link will shake the entire chain, and its indicators appear in the rise in fertilizer prices.

A year ago, the price of one ton of wheat was $450, then it jumped at the height of the war (during April 2025) to more than $900, before falling last June to $600, with the decline of the sound of the guns. However, prices are still a third higher than before the war.

Farmers’ options

But how do farmers deal with disruption like the one that occurred during the war?

When supplies are hit, farmers resort to two options: either reduce the amount of fertilizer used in fertilizing, or reduce the area of ​​land under cultivation in the first place. In both cases, the quality of the crop may deteriorate or the harvest may decline even with the end of the war and the calm of the fronts in one way or another, because the planting season has ended or the fertilization date has passed.

These facts have prompted international organizations to warn of difficult prospects. The FAO expected cereal production to decline next season by about 2%, bringing total global production to 2.99 billion tons during the 2026-2027 season.

It is expected that 500 million tons of this quantity will be traded in global markets, compared to 507 tons that were previously traded, according to May 2025 data issued by the FAO.

With the rise in grain price indices last May, the pulse of the markets rose by about 5% on an annual basis, as wheat recorded an increase of about 8% annually.

As for corn prices, they rose by about 2% per month, while rice rose by about 3%, despite the fact that global stocks temporarily mitigated the shock of the repercussions, especially since they represent about a third of the total annual global use (31.7% average global stock of grains).

To avoid worsening food crises, the world needs to confront them on several short-term timelines, and needs to open alternative trade corridors, protect shipments of food and fertilizer, and avoid export restrictions.

In the medium term, the world will need to diversify energy and fertilizer sources, support the most vulnerable farmers, and strengthen regional coordination. In the long term, it requires investments in sustainable agriculture, storage, logistics services, renewable energy, and alternative fertilizers.

In any case, the best and safest solution is to stop creating food crises by igniting conflicts and wars that prevent the smooth flow of supplies and ensure market stability.