Published on 6/16/2026
Next Thursday, all eyes will turn to the small electoral district of Makerfield in northwest England, which is witnessing decisive by-elections.
The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, is waging this battle, seeking to win the parliamentary seat, in a move seen as a prelude to his plan to oust Labor Party leader Keir Starmer from the premiership.
Below are some answers to what the British media describes as “the most important by-elections” in the history of British politics.
Political battle
Voting in the Makerfield constituency – near Manchester in northwest England – is turning from a traditional by-election into a political battle. Winning this parliamentary seat is Andy Burnham’s golden ticket to return to Parliament, which legally paves the way for him to run for the leadership of the Labor Party, and then jump to the prime minister’s seat.
On the other hand, these elections represent a lifeline for current Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as Burnham’s loss means giving Starmer – who is clinging to power – an additional period to fortify his position.
Accordingly, the immediate political future of the head of power in Britain depends on the votes of only about 76,000 voters in this small circle.
Polling stations are scheduled to open their doors at seven in the morning (06:00 GMT) and close at ten in the evening, after which the counting process will begin in preparation for announcing the decisive results in the early hours of Friday morning.
Why are these elections being held now?
This by-election was decided after current MP Josh Simons announced he would step down, making way for Burnham to run and win the seat, thus launching his campaign to oust Starmer.
According to the Labor Party’s rules, no one can become party leader unless he is a member of Parliament, so Burnham – who held a parliamentary seat between 2001 and 2017 – is seeking to return to the council again.
Burnham (56 years old) is a veteran politician popular among the moderate left wing of the Labor Party, and he is one of the most prominent critics of Starmer, who has tried to run the country from a more centrist position since he ousted the Conservatives in July 2024.
The scandal of appointing Peter Mandelson – formerly linked to billionaire convicted of sex crimes Jeffrey Epstein – as ambassador to Washington also contributed to the poor results achieved by the Labor Party in the general elections last month.
Who will win?
It is expected that the competition will be tight with the candidate of the far-right Reform UK party, Robert Kenyon, and in contrast, opinion polls indicate that Burnham may win.
Although the constituency is traditionally a Labor stronghold, Simons won it with a majority of just over 5,300 votes in the 2024 general election.
The Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage – known for his hard-line stances against immigration – won all the local council districts in the region during last month’s elections.
But it is expected that Burnham’s popularity will contribute to his victory, especially since Kenyon has faced criticism for previous offensive statements on social media, including those targeting women.
The “Restore Britain” party – which is backed by Elon Musk and takes a more right-wing position than “Reform the UK” – may play a decisive role, as a poll conducted by More in Common for the Sunday Times showed that the party may get 8% of the vote, which is greater than the difference between Burnham (45%) and Kenyon (40%).
Conflict scenarios
Media reports indicate that Burnham may quickly announce his candidacy for the party leadership if he wins the by-election, and there are those who are likely to wait until the annual Labor Party conference in September.
Burnham will need the support of 81 MPs out of 402 in the party in order to compete, the outcome of which will be determined by Labor members, not just MPs.
Others may also enter the race, such as former Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former Defense Secretary John Healey, who was considered close to Starmer until his surprise resignation announcement last week.
While a YouGov poll last month showed that Burnham would outperform Starmer, the Prime Minister warned on Monday that any leadership contest would push the country toward “chaos,” stressing that he would stay and face any challenge.
On the other hand, Burnham’s allies expressed – in statements to local newspapers – their hope that Starmer’s ministers would succeed in convincing him to resign or set a timetable for his departure from office.
