Energy war.. Why is Ukraine targeting Russian oil facilities? | news

Recent months have witnessed an unprecedented Ukrainian escalation against the Russian oil industry, in a move that reality indicates is the result of a systematic strategy followed by Kiev to drain the sources of war financing on which the Kremlin depends.

The latest of these attacks was the strike on the vital Russian Tuapse refinery yesterday, Tuesday, which led to the outbreak of a fire in the refinery located on the Black Sea, which the authorities were only able to control this morning.

These intense Ukrainian attacks on energy facilities raise many questions, especially as they coincide with the repercussions of the raging war in the Middle East between the United States and Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other. What is the significance of the timing of the Ukrainian targeting of oil refineries and Russian energy export ports? What is the impact of these attacks on the Russian economy and how does Moscow deal with them?

Thoughtful timing

The Ukrainian escalation against Russian energy facilities coincided with the repercussions of the war on Iran, and the economic breakthrough it represented for Moscow, as oil prices rose to record levels, which meant the flow of billions of additional dollars into the Russian treasury.

The energy crisis resulting from the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the European Union and the United States to ease restrictions and embargoes on Russian oil to ensure the flow of energy supplies and prevent the collapse of the global economy as a result of the absence of Iranian and Gulf oil.

Faced with this golden opportunity presented to Moscow, Kiev saw that allowing Russia to sell its oil at high prices and with Western blessing means giving Russian President Vladimir Putin the opportunity to finance his war against Ukraine for years to come.

Therefore, Ukraine decided to compensate for the Western “legal embargo” that was lifted on Russian energy, by using its drones to disrupt Russian ports and refineries.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statements clearly reflected this strategic goal, as he pledged to continue targeting Russian energy facilities.

Targeting size

In less than two months, Ukraine targeted several Russian oil refineries and pipelines on the country’s ports on the Baltic and Black Seas, causing severe damage to the Russian economy.

A report published by the British newspaper “Financial Times” indicates that the attacks on the Ukrainian marches hinder Russia’s ability to benefit from the rise in global oil prices.

The Ukrainian attacks targeted major ports for exporting Russian oil, most notably Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which represent more than 40% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports.

Estimates indicate that only 5 attacks during one week last February cost Russia about $970 million in revenue, in addition to burning oil worth $200 million in the port of Primorsk alone, which is the largest Russian oil export port on the Baltic Sea.

Yesterday, Tuesday, April 28, Ukrainian drones targeted the Tuapse refinery, which is located on the Black Sea in the south of the country, causing toxic emissions that led to the evacuation of the local population.

This targeting was the latest in a series of successive strikes, the first of which began in the middle of this month and led to its closure and the cessation of exports, followed by a second wave on the 20th of the same month that targeted tanks that were under repair.

Also on April 26, high-precision drones targeted the main refining unit at the vital Yaroslavl refinery in the Russian interior, northeast of Moscow, which processes about 15 million tons of oil annually. The strike led to essential technical parts being taken out of service, which constituted a strong blow to Russian oil supplies.

The Ukrainian targets also included the “Orsk” and “Perm” facilities in the Ural Mountains region, and caused the closure of local airports. The Ukrainian marches also struck the oil pipelines feeding the strategic port of Primorsk, resulting in an oil leak confirmed by the authorities. This site is considered the most important artery for exporting Russian crude to European and Asian markets via ports on the Baltic Sea.

The Russian position regarding this attrition

The Ukrainian attacks revealed clear gaps in the Russian defense system. According to the British Financial Times, the Kremlin has acknowledged its limited ability to protect energy export facilities, despite the vital importance of this sector, especially with the continuation of the war, which has entered its fifth year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also admitted yesterday, Tuesday, that Ukraine deliberately targeted energy facilities in his country, noting that it had intensified its attacks on the civilian infrastructure in his country.

He added in statements broadcast on Russian television that one of the most recent examples of this is the Ukrainian attack on the oil refinery in the city of Tuapse.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also warned that such attacks exacerbate the scarcity of oil supplies and destabilize global oil markets.

Peskov noted that President Vladimir Putin received a telephone report from Emergencies Minister Alexander Korenkov about the fires that broke out at the Tuapse refinery as a result of the attacks.

Political analysts believe that Russia may try to respond to the Ukrainian depletion of its energy facilities through bombing waves targeting the remaining electricity generation and gas distribution plants in Ukraine, to turn Ukrainian cities into uninhabitable areas, as a message of deterrence based on striking Ukrainian energy facilities in response to targeting Russian energy.

Analysts also expect that Russia will strengthen its defenses by repositioning air defense systems on the battle fronts to protect oil refineries in the Russian interior, which is what Ukraine seeks to exhaust Russian defenses on the battle fronts.

Whatever solutions Moscow will resort to to limit the depletion to which its energy facilities are exposed, its options remain limited after years of Western sanctions and war, and it does not seem that the systematic war of attrition waged by Kiev will abate in the foreseeable future, according to observers.