Published On 4/22/2026
In the midst of regional escalation and its accelerating repercussions, global energy markets are heading towards further turmoil, with international warnings of extended effects that may affect demand and supplies alike, amid special focus on navigation developments in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy arteries in the world.
In this context, the Secretary-General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Philippe Michel Bella, warned of the possibility of a sustainable collapse in demand for gas if the war continues, explaining that the recovery of markets even if the conflict stops may take between 6 months and a full year.
This coincided with similar European warnings, as the European Energy Commissioner confirmed that the energy market remains in a bad situation even in the best scenarios, indicating that the continent is facing a long-term energy shock.
The German government also lowered its economic growth forecast to 0.5% compared to previous estimates of 1%, citing escalating geopolitical risks.
On the ground, these developments were directly reflected in oil prices, as Brent crude oil exceeded the level of $100 per barrel, recording an increase of more than $3, in light of the disruption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ship tracking data shows that 3 cargo ships were involved in accidents, one of which was targeted, while two other ships stopped, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that the three ships are container carriers, two of which carry the flag of Panama and the third the flag of Liberia.
Markets await negotiations
For his part, energy markets analyst Bashar Al-Halabi explained that this sharp rise in prices is due to the failure of political efforts to calm down, especially the failure to hold talks between the United States and Iran, which the markets were anticipating to reach a possible ceasefire agreement. He added that extending the deadline for negotiations from 3 to 5 days contributed to increasing the state of anxiety, which was quickly reflected in the price movement.
Al-Halabi pointed out that oil prices, which ranged between $60 and $65 per barrel before the war, rose significantly due to two main factors:
the first: Geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether through a naval blockade or targeting ships.
The second: Global supply disruption, which has increased the markets’ sensitivity to any development on the ground.
Regarding American inventories, he pointed out that the sudden decline in commercial inventories reflects an increase in demand within the United States, which is usually considered a positive indicator, but in light of the current crisis it has turned into an additional pressure factor on prices, given Washington’s role in compensating for part of the global supply shortage.
He pointed out the possibility of an increase in US oil exports by about one million barrels per day during this April in an attempt to fill the gap resulting from the disruption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Europe is under gas pressure
He stressed that the continued closure of the strait will lead to prices remaining on an open upward path without a clear ceiling, considering that any solution to the global energy crisis remains dependent on the reopening of this vital corridor and the stabilization of shipping movement.
As for gas, Al-Halabi explained that Europe is the most affected, especially after it turned to rely heavily on Qatari gas following the Russian-Ukrainian war, noting that the cessation of supplies through the strait puts the continent facing great challenges, especially with the approaching summer season, which usually witnesses storage operations in preparation for winter.
He added that European countries have already begun to adopt policies to reduce energy demand, including reducing consumption and adopting austerity measures, which he described as “destroying demand,” warning of the repercussions of these policies in the medium and long term.
In his assessment of international warnings about the decline in demand for gas, Al-Halabi considered that they were partially exaggerated, but they reflect real concerns, especially in light of the damage to energy facilities in the Gulf, which may delay the return of production to pre-war levels, even if navigation resumes, indicating that recovery may take months or even more than a year.
He also pointed out that the measures taken by European countries, such as reducing taxes on electricity and providing direct support to citizens, aim to mitigate the impact of rising prices, but they will not be sufficient to avoid the high bill resulting from increased import costs.
