A couple of weeks back, we asked if the tide was turning in Ukraine. The short answer: a little, but it’s hard to cut through the fog of war. Now, we’re beginning to wonder if Crimea could be back in play. Kyiv’s new line of longer-range missiles and drones are wreaking havoc on fuel and power supplies. And while Russia continues to inch forward in other frontline flashpoints, the peninsula occupied in 2014 by Vladimir Putin’s little green men has never looked so vulnerable.
A Ukrainian offensive still seems like a pipe dream. Instead, is the current pressure a way to force concessions out of a Kremlin forced to admit what’s all over Russian social media: that petrol stations across Russia are running on empty because of those long-range strikes? Will Vladimir Putin compromise or double down?
And what do Crimeans themselves want? Most seemed happy to vote yes in a referendum to rejoin a Russia they only left in 1954. More broadly, what consequences for the entire Black Sea region, which since 2022 has alternated between periods of war, disruption and mutually agreed calm to allow both sides to ship goods? The Black Sea is of course shared with Turkey, which hosts next week’s timely NATO summit.
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
