Published on 6/30/2026
Attention is turning to the upcoming confrontation between the Belgium and Senegal teams in the round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup, in a meeting that will be held on Wednesday in Seattle, amid great anticipation for the similar numerical indicators that this summit holds and the mixed performance between the two teams during the group stage.
According to Opta’s supercomputer simulation, Belgium is relatively ahead with 45.6% out of 25,000 simulations, while Senegal’s victory rate in normal time is 27.0%, while 27.4% of the simulations ended in a draw, which reflects a clear convergence in the chances of qualifying within 90 minutes, with a slight advantage for the Belgian team with an overall percentage of 59.0% compared to 41.0% for Senegal in the chance of passing.
Read also
list of 2 itemsend of list
Fiery numbers for Senegal despite fluctuating results
The Senegalese team entered the tournament with remarkable levels of attack, despite suffering two defeats against France and Norway in the first group, before achieving a major victory over Iraq with a score of 5-0, securing the qualification ticket among the best third-place finishers.
Senegal’s three matches in the group stage witnessed the scoring of 14 goals, with 8 goals in its favor and 6 goals against itself, a number exceeded only by Norway’s national team with 15 goals, which reflects the open attacking nature of the team’s matches.
In its match against Iraq, the Senegalese team presented an exceptional performance in terms of numbers, as it shot 28 balls, including 12 shots on goal, and achieved an expected goals rate of 3.01, in addition to 51 touches inside the opponent’s penalty area, which are numbers recorded as the highest rates in a single match in the history of Senegal’s participation in the World Cup.
Ismaila Sarr is considered one of the most prominent offensive cards of the Senegalese national team, having scored 3 goals and assisted one goal in the current edition, reaching 4 goal contributions, which is the highest number for a Senegalese player in a single edition of the tournament, equaling Henry Camara’s record in the 2002 edition.
Sarr also represents an extension of coach Pape Thiaw’s attacking options, especially after the emergence of his role as a primary striker in light of the decline in the role of Nicholas Jackson.
In the midfield, Idrissa Gueye stands out as a pivotal element in the playmaking, after he made 39 key passes in the group stage, which is the highest number for a Senegalese player, in addition to topping the list of passes that break the opponent’s lines in a previous continental tournament with 100 assists.
Despite the offensive strength, the Senegalese team faces clear defensive concerns after conceding 6 goals in 3 matches, in a tournament that witnessed 14 goals being scored in its matches, which places the technical staff facing a major challenge to restore balance before the decisive confrontation.
The Senegalese team is also seeking to achieve only its second victory in the history of its participation in the qualifying rounds, as it lost the last two matches without scoring, against Turkey in the quarter-finals in 2002 and against England in the round of 16 in the previous edition.
Belgium has a strong record and exceptional history in the group
On the other hand, the Belgian national team enters the match with an unbeaten record in the last 16 matches, during which it achieved 10 victories compared to 6 draws, which reflects great stability in performance, according to Opta’s supercomputer simulation.
However, Belgium’s start to the tournament was not ideal, after it tied in its first two matches against Egypt and Iran, becoming the first team to top its group without winning in the first two rounds since the United States of America in 2010, and the first European team to achieve this achievement since England in 1990.
However, the Belgian team returned strongly in the third round, achieving a major victory over New Zealand with a score of 5-1, which was its largest victory in the history of its participation in the World Cup. It also scored more goals in that match than it scored in seven previous matches combined.
Significant individual numbers lead Belgium
The last match witnessed the brilliance of Leandro Trossard, who scored two goals and created 13 goalscoring chances, a record in the group stage since Miralem Pjanic in 2014, with clear superiority in playmaking from moving balls without fixed kicks.
Romelu Lukaku also stood out by scoring one goal and assisting another, raising his tally to 6 goals and one assist in the history of his participation in the World Cup, which is the highest in the history of the Belgian national team in the tournament in terms of goals and contributions.
Lukaku is close to achieving a special achievement, which is scoring in two consecutive matches for the second time in his World Cup career, after he had previously done so in the 2018 edition.
History of direct confrontations
This is the first match between Belgium and Senegal in the history of the World Cup, but historical figures reveal a discrepancy in results against different continental teams.
Senegal lost its last 4 matches against European teams, while before that it achieved 3 victories and one draw in the first 5 matches, while Belgium lost only one match out of 6 matches against African teams, and that was against Morocco in the 2022 edition, without playing any elimination match against these teams.
Simulation expectations and expected resolution
The simulation results indicate a relative advantage for Belgium, with a 45.6% chance of winning within 90 minutes, compared to 27.0% for Senegal, while the draw rate was 27.4%.
As for the chances of qualifying, the numbers suggest that Belgium will reach at a rate of 59.0%, compared to 41.0% for Senegal, which reflects a balanced match that may be decided by small details and individual errors, despite the slight numerical superiority of the European team.
Expected formation
Belgium: Thibaut Courtois, Mike Penders, Zino Debast, Arthur Theat, Timothy Castagne, Axel Witsel, Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Leandro Trossard, Jeremy Doku, Romelu Lukaku.
Senegal: Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Moussa Nyakhati, Ismael Jacobs, Idrissa Gueye, Lamine Kamara, Krippin Diatta, Pape Sarr, Ismaila Sarr, Nicholas Jackson, Sadio Mane.
