Despite the onset of summer, Europe appears to be facing an early test in preparing for the winter season, after recent data showed a slowdown in the pace of filling gas storage facilities compared to previous years, at a time when competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas shipments is increasing, and uncertainty continues about some sources of supply, especially from the Middle East and Norway.
Estimates of the Agency for Cooperation between Energy Regulators in the European Union (ACER) indicate that European gas reserves were at only about 28% at the beginning of the injection season on the first of last April, which is the lowest level in 4 years, before they later rose to levels around half of the storage capacity, but they are still below the average of previous years and below the pace of filling that the continent witnessed after the energy crisis in 2022.
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European Union rules require member states to reach a stockpiling level of 90% by November 1 of each year, but the European Commission has shown greater flexibility this year, allowing in practice lower levels in some cases, which may reach 80% or even 70%, to avoid forced purchases at high prices.
The European Union Energy Regulatory Cooperation Agency estimates that achieving the 90% target requires increasing LNG imports by about 13% compared to 2025 levels.
Not the crisis of 2022
The central question today is whether Europe is heading towards a winter similar to the one that followed the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, energy experts tend to rule out a repetition of the same scenario, although they do not deny the existence of clear price and industrial risks.
Energy affairs expert Lori Haitian said during her interview with Al Jazeera Net that the comparison with the 2022 crisis is not accurate, because before the war Russia was providing about 43% of Europe’s gas needs through pipelines, while the share of Qatari and Arab gas currently does not exceed about 8% of Europe’s imports, and she believes that what the continent is facing today is not an existential crisis as happened after the cessation of Russian supplies, but rather a state of anticipation and pressure on storage and prices.
Professor of Economics and International Relations, Camille Al-Sari, in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, goes in the same direction, considering that Europe was subjected to a sudden shock in 2022 without sufficient alternatives, while today it has become more prepared, after diversifying its sources between American, Norwegian and Algerian gas, and some countries, such as France, increased their dependence on nuclear energy, indicating that the coming winter will be comfortable. The problem does not lie only in the availability of gas, but in its price, the timing of its arrival, and the extent of competition for it.
Asian competition
Argus estimates show that Europe needs to significantly accelerate the pace of replenishing its stores, as it must pump about 3.79 terawatt-hours per day until the storage rate reaches 80% by the beginning of next October, while the average pace of injection during the same period in the past five years did not exceed 2.9 terawatt-hours per day, which reflects the scale of the challenge that the continent faces before the arrival of winter.
Traders are awaiting supplies from Norway, which is the largest exporter of gas through pipelines to Europe. According to Argus, maintenance work scheduled for next September is expected to reduce production capacity by about 71 million cubic meters per day, compared to an actual reduction that reached 187 million cubic meters per day during the same period last year, which makes any delay or expansion of maintenance work a factor that may increase pressure on the pace of replenishing European stocks.
However, the global market is not moving entirely in Europe’s favor. High demand in China, India, and South Asia pushes LNG shipments to markets that are able to pay higher prices, especially with the convergence of gas prices in Europe and Asia.
In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, the economic researcher specializing in energy affairs, Amer Al-Shobaki, believes that targeting gas tankers and the high risks of shipping and insurance in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz do not strike Qatar alone, but rather put pressure on an entire global balance between producers and consumers. He explains that European gas prices moved in a range close to 50 euros ($54) per megawatt-hour, equivalent to about 15 to 17 dollars per million British thermal units, which is a level close to spot Asian prices.
According to Al-Shoubaki, this rapprochement means that Europe and Asia are almost competing for gas within the same price range, making the financially weaker countries, especially in South Asia, more likely to obtain smaller quantities or at higher prices.
According to Kapler data, during last May and June, Asian buyers accounted for the largest volumes of liquefied natural gas shipments coming from the Atlantic Basin. In contrast, European Union imports of liquefied natural gas decreased by about 2.37 million tons compared to the same period last year.
US liquefied natural gas shipments to Asia rose last June to 3.25 million metric tons, or about 31% of total US exports, while shipments to Europe fell to 4.41 million tons (42% of exports) compared to 5.13 million tons last May.
Energy bill
The slowdown in storage is reflected in gas prices first, then in electricity, industry, and inflation. Heat waves in Europe raise the demand for electricity for cooling purposes, and push gas stations to increase production, at a time when the continent needs more storage, not additional consumption.
Haitian explains that heat waves are becoming longer and more frequent in Europe, which increases the demand for electricity, even in countries where air conditioning is not as widespread as in other regions. If this high demand coincides with inventories below required levels, this could lead to higher electricity prices.
Heavy industries are the most exposed, primarily fertilizers, glass, metals, and chemicals, because they rely heavily on gas, whether as an energy source or as a production input. Haitian indicates that any shortage of gas or a significant increase in its prices will put pressure on these sectors, increase the cost of production, and may later be reflected in the prices of final goods.
As for Al-Sari, he believes that fertilizers come at the forefront of sensitive sectors, because gas plays a pivotal role in their production, and Europe partly depends on imports from the Middle East for industrial materials, petrochemicals, and metals linked to energy chains. But he confirms that the continent has not yet reached the stage of widespread factory closure, and that the decisive factor will remain the duration of the disruption in supplies and freight movement.
High energy prices represent an additional challenge for the European Central Bank. If gas and electricity prices rise, this may be reflected in inflation, at a time when Europe seeks to support growth and reduce the impact of the cost of financing on industry.
Al-Shoubaki believes that gas has a more profound economic impact than oil, because its impact does not appear only in the price of fuel, but extends to electricity, fertilizers, petrochemicals, jobs, and inflation. Therefore, any disruption in gas security may turn into a new wave of energy anxiety.
Haitian says that rising energy prices may create a new problem for the European Central Bank, because it restores inflationary pressure at a time when European economies need price stability and industry relief.
Arab countries
Qatar remains a central player in the global liquefied gas market, and an important pillar of energy security in Europe and Asia, as it represents about 8% of total European Union imports in 2025.
Asia appears to be more sensitive to any disruption in Qatari gas compared to Europe, as Asian countries have long-term contracts with Doha. In India alone, Qatar provided about 41.4% of liquefied gas imports in the years 2024-2025, while its contracts with Bangladesh cover about 4.3 million tons annually out of imports of approximately 7 million tons, which explains how quickly any disruption in Qatari supplies will be reflected in the competition between Europe and Asia for spot shipments.
Haitian expects that the biggest beneficiary of the rise in European demand for gas in the short term will be supplies far from the dangers of the Strait of Hormuz, most notably American liquefied natural gas, while Algeria can meet part of this demand, but within limits imposed by its production and export capacity and its local needs.
Despite Algeria’s location close to Europe and its possession of pipelines to Italy and Spain, its ability to increase exports is not open. Domestic consumption is rising, production cannot be increased with a quick decision, and internal demand in the summer puts pressure on supplies available for export.
Al-Sari points out that Algeria faces a double challenge represented by a strong European demand for its gas on the one hand, and increasing internal consumption on the other hand, which limits its ability to transform into a complete and rapid alternative to compensate for the lack of supplies.
