Published 08.42
The scope for far-reaching election promises is small next term, according to the Norwegian Economic Institute.
Despite that, the parties are sprinkling billions of dollars in proposals.
During the Almedal week alone, both the Tidö parties and the opposition presented various promises that would burden the state treasury with many billions of kroner per political block and year.
It is about everything from reduced taxes to investment in pensioners, trains and families.
At the same time, the scope for reform for the next term is small.
According to The Economic Institute according to the latest forecast, the budget space, i.e. how much the government can spend on unfunded reforms, will be around SEK 95 billion in total for the years 2027 to 2030. Anyone who wants to invest more than that should therefore save on other things or raise taxes.
It is less than the money that the government scraped together for 2026 alone in new investments, where the sum is around SEK 100 billion in the regular budget and supplementary budgets.
Already in February, however, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) flagged that the scope for reform for the next term would be small.
Svantesson pointed out costly investments going forward that eat up a large part of the reform space, such as investments in infrastructure, expansion of new prisons and defense.
Save on the state
To finance their proposals have The left party and The Green Party among other things proposed new taxes on billionaires.
KD, SD, M and S have all talked about streamlining the state apparatus in various ways, such as saving money on ministries, authorities and public procurement.
The moderates claims, for example, to have identified possible savings of SEK 71 billion from reduced bureaucracy and reduced grants.
However, according to Jonas Hinnfors, professor emeritus in political science, it is a bit of wishful thinking.
– Many people talk about making it more efficient, but the experience of how much money is actually made from it is rather bleak, he says.
Must stand out
He describes it as symbolic politics to be able to say that there is room for various reforms.
– That is something you can claim in advance.
That it is widely promised in the election campaign is, however, quite expected, according to Hinnfors. The parties come forward with their own election manifestos and need to stand out from the crowd.
– If you have a coalition or a collaboration, everyone can promise quite a lot before an election. But in coalitions, parties must always stand back, you cannot count on everything to be implemented.
After an election, negotiations await instead.
– Then you often come down a little in amount, you can’t add up everything they say, says Hinnfors.
The parties’ proposals in Almedalen
A: A “workers’ pension” which is said to be able to be implemented next term. Described as a billion-dollar reform.
C: A tax-free basic salary of just over SEK 15,000 a month. The proposal is estimated to cost 24.2 billion per year.
V: A baby allowance of SEK 15,000 for those who have children for the first time. Included in a family package for SEK 16.5 billion.
MP: Wants to spend SEK 216 billion more than the government (for the period 2026 to 2037) on removing bottlenecks and increasing the railway’s capacity with new trunk lines.
M: Parents of young children who work must receive a special parental tax deduction. Cost around SEK 6 billion.
SD: An interactive map showing where convicted pedophiles live.
KD: Proposal to increase the child allowance to SEK 2,000. Estimated to cost SEK 16.5 billion.
L: Reduced state income tax in several steps, starting on January 1, 2027. In the long run, it should be halved. Costs up to SEK 30 billion.
