Before Europe prepares… Will the Russian threat knock on NATO’s doors? | policy

European capitals are witnessing an increase in concern about the possibility of the confrontation with Russia moving to a new stage, which does not necessarily involve a large-scale conventional war, but rather limited security and military tests targeting the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), especially in light of the pressures that Moscow is facing on the Ukrainian front, according to Western media.

These newspapers and websites drew attention to hybrid war scenarios and testing the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to many Western media outlets.

European military and diplomatic estimates indicate that European concerns about the Kremlin’s military ambitions are no longer merely deferred strategic analyses, but rather have turned into explicit intelligence warnings shared by major Western newspapers and websites.

While Le Figaro newspaper focused on European fears that Moscow would resort to limited provocations, The Guardian highlighted intelligence warnings regarding the Baltic countries and Poland, while Le Parisien reported Dutch estimates that believe that Russia may become able to carry out a limited military operation against one of the NATO countries within a short period after the end of the war in Ukraine.

These coverages agree on a pivotal point that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to dismantle the political cohesion of the alliance, taking advantage of a critical time preceding the upcoming Ankara summit and amid rising European concerns about the fluctuation of American support.

However, each of these newspapers started from this common denominator to create a unique analytical angle that, as a whole, draws the full features of the coming threat.

The wounded monster

Le Figaro was the only newspaper to provide a precise military analysis of the nature of the threat, going beyond general assessments to dismantling expected Russian tactics.

The newspaper’s correspondent, Nicolas Parrott, quotes Western diplomatic sources who are extremely concerned about Putin resorting to the option of military suicide or the “wounded structure scenario,” as an alliance official admits to the newspaper that: “The ‘wounded beast’ scenario is something that worries us all.”

The newspaper warns that the old calculations that ruled out an invasion of Ukraine are collapsing today in the face of a new reality, as the report quotes a Western diplomat as saying:

“The difficulties Putin faces may make him more inclined to test NATO…and he will not have the decency or good faith to wait for us to be ready.”

This test will not be a traditional one with tanks, but will be a “hybrid and camouflaged” test to play in the gray zone and delay the alliance’s reaction by paralyzing its ability to make decisions.

Here, the report cites a clear and poignant warning from the Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, General Fabien Mandon, who outlined the features of the upcoming Russian provocation in the Baltic states, saying:

“This will not be done with tanks, but rather through internal security forces and very generous relief means. The matter will be covered extensively by the media. In our societies, you can trust all the ‘bots’ and all the pro-Russian mouthpieces to repeat the saying that the Russian-speaking minority in the Baltic countries is being mistreated, and that they need Russia’s protection,” according to the newspaper.

Le Figaro’s reading was not limited to the Baltic front, but rather it was unique in monitoring Norway’s fears of Moscow’s attempt to gnaw away at the Bear Gap corridor, which is vital for its submarines, and observing Belarus as a Kremlin “agent” moving diplomatically towards Beijing.

Imminent warning

While Le Figaro laid out the tactical framework for the confrontation, Le Parisien newspaper (in cooperation with Agence France-Presse) set a shocking and unexpected time limit for the confrontation, and quoted a recent Dutch intelligence report stating that:

“Russia may launch a ‘limited’ military campaign against a NATO country just one year after the end of the war in Ukraine.”

This explains the newspaper’s monitoring of accelerating defensive movements within Europe, such as the Netherlands announcing its plan to rely on marches by 50% within 5 years to confront this scenario.

As for the British newspaper The Guardian, it was preoccupied with the immediate operational aspect and was alone in transmitting urgent Latvian intelligence leaks confirming the presence of “vivid indicators” that Moscow is about to begin limited military provocations (such as launching missiles or marches) to destabilize the Eastern Front, supported by statements by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who described the situation as “extremely volatile and unstable.”

While the Guardian sounded the early warning bell of imminent provocations on the Baltic borders, Le Figaro warned of a hybrid scenario under a legal pretext on which Moscow would move its “electronic armies and security services,” while Le Parisien revealed that the time limit available to Europe may not exceed one year after the Ukrainian war cannons stop.