Published on 6/29/2026
Neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan want to enter into an all-out war, but they appear to be paying the price for the transformations taking place in the Middle East and South Asia after the sudden US withdrawal from Afghan territory, which analysts say raises questions.
From time to time, the two Muslim countries exchange accusations and perhaps attacks that kill dozens or even hundreds of people, and each one blames the other for maintaining a state of instability that is likely to escalate.
In the latest episode of the conflict, Pakistan launched air strikes and carried out a ground operation in eastern Afghanistan against what it described as defectors from the Pakistani Taliban movement in the states of Paktia, Paktika and Konra, in response to an attack targeting the headquarters of the Pakistani Rangers paramilitary forces in Karachi in the south of the country.
But Kabul says the strikes killed 36 civilians and wounded 163 others, prompting it to hand over a formal note of protest over the violation of the country’s airspace to the Pakistani charge d’affaires in Islamabad.
A renewed struggle
These attacks are not new, as they are renewed from time to time, as Islamabad accuses the Pakistani Taliban of launching attacks against it, but journalist Tahir Khan believes that Pakistan has abandoned the cautious strategic patience it had exercised towards Afghanistan.
The attacks on Pakistani territory from time to time have left about 4,000 civilians and soldiers dead or injured, and thus it is no longer possible for Islamabad to stand by and watch, according to what Khan said on the “Beyond the News” program.
Also, the mediation carried out by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and China to bridge the rift between the two countries did not succeed in stopping the escalation of these attacks, which Khan said requires a decisive stance that does not exist from the governments of the two countries.
The mediators can bring the two countries to the table, but they cannot oblige them to implement the pledges, especially since Islamabad holds Kabul responsible for any attack on Pakistan, even if it is far from the border between the two countries, as Khan says.
It is true that the Kabul government may not be responsible, but it is required to investigate these movements, which Khan says are taking place on its soil or emanating from it, while political analyst Obaidullah Bahir responds to these words by saying that whenever Pakistan is attacked by any party, it attacks Afghanistan.
In Bahir’s opinion, Afghanistan does not have to prove its innocence in these attacks. Pakistan must provide evidence of the Afghan side’s involvement in them, instead of trying to hold it responsible for its internal security failure.
More importantly, Pakistan has the strongest army and the most advanced infrastructure on the border, and is therefore the most capable of stopping attacks for which no evidence has been provided for twenty years, in a way that Bahir believes will spoil relations between the two countries.
It’s time to negotiate
The opportunity to negotiate has passed, according to Bahir, who said that the Kabul government “extended its hand in peace, but continuing to hold it responsible for Pakistan’s failure to maintain its security means that we will continue to face this war imposed on us.”
Aside from this and that, Wael Awad, a journalist specializing in Asian affairs, believes that the crisis is not new and may worsen, but “it will not reach the all-out war that neither country wants.”
The problem, in Awad’s opinion, is that Pakistan believed that the Taliban would be a strategic depth for it after its return to power in 2021, “but it was shocked that today’s Taliban is not the Taliban of yesterday.”
Given the great dangers facing Islamabad from India to the east and Afghanistan to the west, it has begun to destabilize Afghanistan, instead of trying to put its internal security house in order, says Awad, who expected the Taliban to respond to these attacks.
Geostrategic conflict
But what is most dangerous, in the spokesman’s opinion, is that Pakistan’s behavior “reinforces Afghan hostility, because Kabul faces threats from several parties, not just Islamabad,” according to Awad, who said that the Taliban “did not recognize the Durand border line drawn by British colonialism, and they can destabilize Pakistan’s security through groups loyal to them.”
However, Awad does not deny that Pakistan is also under pressure as a result of its joining the Chinese Economic Corridor, and believes that what is happening is not a border dispute as much as it is part of a major geostrategic conflict in South Asia.
No one knows what will happen in this region after the sudden American withdrawal from Afghanistan, which Awad said “left many questions about the future of South Asia, which may witness the emergence of new armed groups or the return of terrorism.”
