Victory or a draw against Japan is enough for Sweden to go to the round of 16 in the World Cup.
Here we figure out the chance to progress even in the event of a loss.
Sweden meets Japan at 01:00 on Friday morning.
Sweden’s fate in the World Cup is decided by the match’s result and there are still several possible scenarios even after the match is over.
If Sweden wins against Japan
Sweden advances to the round of 16 as first or second in Group F. If the Netherlands lose points against Tunisia in the parallel match, Sweden will be placed in Group F. If the Netherlands wins against Tunisia, Sweden will be second.
If Sweden wins the group, Morocco awaits in the round of 16. If Sweden finishes second in the group, Brazil awaits in the round of 16.
If Sweden draws against Japan
Sweden advances to the round of 16 as third in group F, as it is already clear that enough thirds from the other groups have a worse table row than Sweden.
The eight best group threes (out of a total of twelve) go to the round of 16.
The opposition in the round of 16 depends on which seven other group threes advance. But it is most likely that Sweden will meet the winner of Group I. Right now, France leads that group, but Norway will win the group if Norway wins against France when the teams meet on Friday night.
If Sweden loses against Japan
► Loss by one goal
The chance for the round of 16 is still really good. Because it is already clear that at least two other group threes have a worse table row than Sweden. It is enough for two more group threes to be worse.
Chance for round of 16 according to VG’s statistical model: 88.5 percent.
► Loss by two goals
The chance for the round of 16 is still good but decreases, because the third from group A (South Korea) will be better than Sweden. In addition, the risk increases that several other group threes will be better than Sweden.
Chance for round of 16 according to VG’s statistical model: 64.6 percent.
► Loss by three goals
The chance for the round of 16 is drastically reduced. Now it is only clear that the third from another group will be worse than Sweden. Three more group threes (from the seven groups that have not yet been completed) must be worse.
Chance for round of 16 according to VG’s statistical model: 27.3 percent.
► Loss by four goals
With this lousy goal difference, even the third from group C (Scotland) is better than Sweden. Blågult can start glancing at the timetable to book a trip home from the US.
Chance for round of 16 according to VG’s statistical model: 6.8 percent.
► Loss by five goals
The chance of the round of 16 is vanishingly small. Even more results must go Sweden’s way.
Chance for round of 16 according to VG’s statistical model: 1.8 percent.
The opposition in the round of 16 if Sweden advances after losing to Japan – regardless of how big the loss is – depends on which other seven group threes advance. But it is most likely that Sweden will meet the winner of Group I. Right now, France leads that group, but Norway will win the group if Norway wins against France when the teams meet on Friday night.
The national team
