New York primaries test Mamdani’s pull and Trump’s endorsement power

Voters in New York, Maryland, Utah and South Carolina head to the polls Tuesday in primaries that will test the power of outside money, party establishment and the political figures trying to bend both to their side.

The marquee race is in New York’s 12th District, where Democrats are choosing a nominee to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in one of the safest blue seats in the country. The crowded Manhattan primary includes Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, along with Jack Schlossberg, a grandson of President John F. Kennedy.

Bores’ record on artificial intelligence regulation — and the outside money around it — has turned the race into a national proxy fight over how aggressively Democrats should regulate one of the fastest-growing sectors of the economy.

Elsewhere in New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is trying to prove his democratic socialist political movement can outlast his own campaign and reshape Congress. Upstate, the Republican primary to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik will test whether President Donald Trump’s endorsement can overpower the local GOP establishment.

In Maryland, Democrats are choosing a successor to former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, while Rep. April McClain Delaney faces a self-funded challenge from former Rep. David Trone. And in Utah, new House maps have scrambled primaries in both parties.

Here are five things to watch Tuesday:

Mamdani is not on the ballot Tuesday, but his political movement is. A year after his surprise primary win reshaped New York politics, the 34-year-old New York City mayor is trying to turn his left-wing coalition into a force in Congress.

He has endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier against Rep. Adriano Espaillat in NY-13, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander against Rep. Dan Goldman in NY-10 and Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in the race to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez in NY-7.

Those endorsements have angered parts of Mamdani’s coalition.

Espaillat is chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and a close ally of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, also of New York. Velázquez, an early Mamdani supporter, broke with him over Valdez. Labor unions, Latino leaders and some progressives have also bristled at his decision to challenge incumbents and longtime allies.

But Mamdani is betting that Democratic voters are more open to disruption than party leaders think.

A Honan Strategy Group survey found that only 63% of New York City Democratic voters view the party favorably, while 35% view it unfavorably. Half said electing a younger, more progressive generation willing to challenge the establishment is a top priority in this year’s primaries.

The poll also found that 43% of the Big Apple’s Democratic voters called primary challenges to incumbents, such as Espaillat, healthy for the party, compared with 13% who called them a divisive distraction.

A win for Mamdani-backed candidates would show the mayor, who is term-limited at the end of 2033, is a progressive power broker beyond City Hall. Losses would suggest his appeal is personal, not transferable.

Battles in New York are also being fought over money.

In NY-13, Espaillat is trying to hold off Avila Chevalier, who has made central to her campaign a crusade against corporate money and U.S. policy toward Israel.

AIPAC, the influential pro-Israel lobbying group, has become a major player through its super PAC, United Democracy Project. UDP gave $650,000 to BOLD America, which has spent at least $2.8 million supporting Espaillat and opposing Avila Chevalier. Other pro-Espaillat groups, including Latino Victory Fund, Project 218 and Progressive Unity Fund, have also joined the effort.

Avila Chevalier has outside help from Justice Democrats and American Priorities, a pro-Palestinian super PAC formed as a counterweight to AIPAC. But for the left, the pro-incumbent spending is also proof, they say, that national groups are trying to wall off safe Democratic seats from progressive challengers more critical of Israel.

The same dynamic is playing out elsewhere. A pro-Goldman super PAC has spent more than $300,000 in NY-10. In NY-12, tech-aligned groups are backing Bores, while former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has put $10 million behind Lasher, his former aide and Nadler’s endorsed successor.

Maryland Democrats are facing two very different tests of power.

In the 5th District, Hoyer’s retirement has triggered a 24-candidate primary for a seat he held for 23 terms.

The field includes state Del. Adrian Boafo and former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who rose to national prominence after defending the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Boafo, a former Hoyer aide, has the clearest establishment lane, with endorsements from Hoyer, Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks. He has also benefited from $8.8 million in outside spending, including $4.9 million from the crypto-backed Protect Progress, $2.9 million from AIPAC’s United Democracy Project and $500,000 from Hoyer’s leadership PAC, according to Roll Call.

In the neighboring 6th District, McClain Delaney is trying to hold off Trone, the Total Wine co-founder who gave up the seat for a failed 2024 Senate bid. Trone has loaned his campaign $25 million, two years after spending $63 million of his own money in that Senate race.

Out West, Utah’s races are Tuesday’s clearest examples of how redistricting is reshaping the fight for the House majority.

A court-ordered map created a Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City-based 1st District, giving the party a rare chance to break into Utah’s all-Republican House delegation.

Former Rep. Ben McAdams, the last Democrat to represent Utah in Congress, is running against state Sen. Nate Blouin, tax attorney Michael Farrell and political newcomer Liban Mohamed.

The new lines have also complicated the Republican side putting candidates on less familiar terrain and turning the redistricting fight itself into a primary issue. Rep. Blake Moore faces Karianne Lisonbee in the 2nd District, while Rep. Celeste Maloy is trying to hold off Phil Lyman in the 3rd.

Beyond Utah, redistricting fights across the country are already helping define the 2026 House battlefield.

So far this primary season, Trump’s endorsement has carried major weight. But in upstate New York, it is running into the state GOP machine.

In the 21st District, the race to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik has become a fight between state Assemblyman Anthony Constantino, a first-time candidate and Sticker Mule CEO backed by Trump, and state Assemblyman Robert Smullen, a retired Marine colonel backed by the state Republican establishment.

The district should be friendly terrain for Trump’s pick. Trump won roughly 60% of the vote there in 2024, and Stefanik became one of his most loyal House allies.

Constantino has leaned into the MAGA spectacle and self-funded his campaign with millions. Smullen has spent far less but has support from 12 of the district’s 15 Republican county committees and the Conservative Party line, which could keep him on the November ballot even if he loses the GOP primary.

A Smullen win would mark a rare limit to Trump’s influence. A prolonged Republican split could also give Democrats a narrow opening in a seat they would otherwise have little chance of flipping.