Published On 11/6/2026
It is expected that transit movement in the Strait of Hormuz will witness more fluidity after the strikes exchanged by the United States and Iran last night, due to the focus on military targets and the removal of energy facilities from the equation.
The United States bombed Iranian targets that it said represented a threat to its forces present in the region and to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, to which Iran responded by bombing American military targets.
On the morning of this escalation, Brent crude prices fell by about 1% to $92, and US West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $90.
The decline came despite Iran’s announcement of the complete closure of the strait, and called on the ships that had coordinated with it in advance to wait until things became clearer, and thus no ship was detected passing through, according to what Abdul Qader Aradah said on an interactive screen on Al Jazeera.
Indeed, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the targeting of two tankers that it said had tried to cross the Strait without coordination with Iranian authorities, while 3 Indian sailors were killed after American forces targeted 3 Indian ships near the Strait of Hormuz, on Tuesday, because they violated the blockade imposed on Iranian ports. This was confirmed by India, saying that two of the ships were subject to sanctions and a third was classified as non-compliant.
Unexpected reaction
But this escalation was met with a decline in oil prices, which energy expert Amer Al-Shobaki attributed to the fact that the American strikes targeted Iran’s ability to monitor and disturb transit traffic in the Strait, while Iran targeted military sites and kept energy facilities away.
This is what pushed the risk premium to its lowest levels since the start of the war, according to what Al-Shoubaki said in an analysis for Al-Jazeera, pointing to the increase in the process of dark passage through the strait, which is based on stealth mechanisms.
Perhaps this explains US President Donald Trump’s talk about the passage of 200 tankers carrying 100 million barrels of oil, which was confirmed by Bloomberg when it said that Iraq exported 11 million barrels during the first ten days of this month, an amount equivalent to what it exported during the previous two months combined, according to Al-Shobaki.
The move to Bab al-Mandab also led to the exit of approximately 9 million barrels of oil per day from the region in light of the dangers of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which reflects an adaptation to the current situation, in the opinion of the expert in energy affairs.
An essential role for China
Bab al-Mandab, as Al-Shoubaki says, represents an artery to compensate for the interruption of transit in Hormuz because it passes Saudi oil that exits through Yanbu to Asia, as well as Russian oil that heads to Asia and Africa.
If Bab al-Mandab is closed by Ansar Allah (the Houthis), in implementation of previous Iranian threats, the cost of the war on the global economy will rise significantly, according to Al-Shoubaki, who ruled out resorting to this step “because it will harm Chinese-Iranian relations.”
The oil that currently passes through Bab al-Mandab feeds Asia in general and China in particular in light of the cessation of supplies from Hormuz, which remains the main corridor for energy exports because it is less expensive and time-consuming, Al-Shobaki says.
The decline in China’s daily imports by about 5 million barrels per day is the largest in 8 years, and reflects its desire to stabilize the global economy in order to serve its internal interests, which Al-Shoubaki believes are not to raise the price of fuel for citizens.
China has begun withdrawing from its strategic reserves to relieve pressure on global demand in light of the crisis, ensuring a decline in prices during the coming period during which the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expected a decline in demand, while the International Energy Agency was more pessimistic – according to the spokesman – in talking about a contraction in demand.
With the decline in demand from Beijing, which benefits from the quantities of oil it previously purchased at low prices, and continues to benefit from Bab al-Mandab and rely on dark traffic in Hormuz, Al-Shoubaki believes that the risk premium is on the way to further decline, which in his opinion increases the possibility of a decline in prices.
