Published On 10/5/2026
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Last update: 22:30 (Mecca time)
The Ukrainian crisis oscillates between cautious diplomatic optimism fueled by US President Donald Trump, and an explosive field reality that indicates a long-term conflict.
With the announcement of a temporary truce that coincided with Russia’s celebrations of Victory Day, fundamental questions emerged about the truth of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements regarding the “near end of the conflict,” and the extent of the White House’s ability to transform the “warrior’s rest” into lasting peace.
The field belies the truce
In this context, former Ukrainian diplomat Volodymyr Chumakov paints a bleak picture of reality, stressing that “the truce does not actually exist” on the lines of engagement.
During his speech on the “Beyond the News” program, Chumakov believes that the Russian position is characterized by a continuous disavowal of covenants and a lack of respect for the signed agreements, considering that Putin needed the truce for only two days to secure the holding of the “military parade” on the anniversary of “Victory Day” (May 9 of this year) without field complications.
According to the former diplomat, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s acceptance of the truce came in response to personal pressure from Trump, despite the Ukrainian conviction that Moscow does not want to sit at the negotiating table, but rather is mobilizing its forces in the Donbass region and southern Ukraine to complete its “bloody war.”
In evidence of the thorny path to peace between the two countries, Russia and Ukraine exchanged accusations regarding attacks, especially marches, on targets described as important.
Maneuver or desire for peace?
For her part, Russian political analyst Elena Suponina believes that the truce is a “good step” that came at the initiative of Putin and succeeded thanks to Trump’s mediation.
Suponina interprets Putin’s optimistic statements toward the end of the war as “courtesy and harmony” with Trump’s optimistic tone, and not based on a solid realistic foundation.
It confirms that Moscow will not end military operations unilaterally, but rather requires Ukraine to recognize the “de facto status quo” (Crimea and Donbass) and neutralize it militarily.
It also indicates Putin’s aspiration to formulate a “new European security system” similar to the Helsinki understandings in the twentieth century, to ensure oversight of arsenals and security cooperation away from the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), while showing potential flexibility towards Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (not NATO).
In this context, the British newspaper, the Financial Times, said that the Europeans are preparing for possible negotiations with Russia.
Trump between exaggeration and realism
On the other hand, former US Assistant Secretary of Defense David Dorosh puts Trump’s statements in their propaganda context, describing them as “undisciplined and using exaggerations.”
Dorosh believes that Trump wants to end the war in a “balanced manner” that does not allow Putin to enable his occupation, because that would worry NATO and threaten the Baltic countries, pointing out that Trump sometimes uses “exaggerations” to raise expectations, but his primary goal is to keep the negotiation paths open.
However, he confirms that there is a discrepancy between Trump’s desire to end the conflict and the vision of his advisors, who believe that “permanent peace will not be achieved unless Putin is defeated,” warning that any cessation of fighting may be exploited by Russia to mobilize its forces.
He expressed his conviction that the Russian army had proven that it had a “fragile structure” despite its imperial rhetoric, and pointed out that the continuation of communication channels was the only gain currently from the truce. Likewise, he described Putin’s optimistic statements as “unrealistic” and contradicting the reality on the ground.
Military confrontations between Moscow and Kiev have been continuing for more than 4 years, as Russia regularly launches missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, and Ukraine responds by targeting sites deep inside Russia.
