The “Support for Islam and Muslims” group, loyal to Al-Qaeda and allied on the ground with the “Front for the Liberation of Azawad”, which includes fighters from the Tuareg and Arab tribes who demand the secession of their regions in the north, announced the imposition of a siege on the Malian capital, Bamako, and the closure of the roads leading to it.
This siege comes days after coordinated attacks that resulted in the killing of Defense Minister Sadio Camara and the fall of the city of Kidal to opposition militants, in the most serious test facing the ruling military junta since its coup in 2020.
This rapid development raises a direct question in Mali and beyond: Is the capital close to falling militarily, or is the country heading toward a long siege and the gradual collapse of Bamako’s authority?
Geography of risk
To understand the consequences of this attack, the financial map must be read according to a clear binary: the center is in the south, and the peripheries are in the far north.
In the southwest, the capital, Bamako, is located, the economic and political heart of the country. Only 15 kilometers away from it is the city of Kati, which serves as a “military fortress” and a stronghold for the Malian army, in which the interim president, Assimi Goeta, is holed up.
The real security earthquake occurred when the attackers broke through the “Kati” checkpoints and assassinated the Minister of Defense with a car bomb in his home, but the seriousness of this scene was not complete until it coincided with the collapse of another front about 1,500 kilometers away.
In the far north, the city of Kidal was falling at the same time into the hands of armed opposition groups.
Kidal’s importance stems not only from its being the historical and symbolic stronghold of the Tuareg rebels, but also because its recapture in 2023 constituted the largest moral victory that the military junta promoted as evidence of the success of its partnership with Russia.
Therefore, the fall of Kidal again in this coordinated attack is not just a loss for the parties, but rather indicates a radical shift in the balance of power, threatening to cut off the vital arteries between the North and the South, especially with the efforts to control other strategic nodes such as Gao and Menaka.
The Front for the Liberation of Azawad – according to statements by its leaders and analytical reports – seeks to complete its control over the cities of the north, in a manner similar to imposing a “fait accompli” for the secession of those regions, in exchange for a compressed and besieged military authority in Bamako and the south.
The “Alliance of Necessity” and the strategy of strangulation
The unprecedented attack is led by two forces that were at odds but have united today: the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (a Tuareg-dominated movement that seeks the secession of the north), and the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (linked to Al-Qaeda).
This rapprochement represents an “alliance of necessity” rather than an ideological fusion, as each party maintains a different project: a cross-border ideological one for “Supporting Islam,” and a Tarek nationalist one for the Front for the Liberation of Azawad.
Researcher Sidi Ahmed Ould El Amir explains, in a study by the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, that what is happening in Mali is no longer just an escalation in violence, but rather “a change in the nature of the war itself.” Armed groups no longer seek only to inflict losses on the army, but also to “disable the state’s ability to function” by suffocating roads and supplies.
This “suffocation” began to translate into reality, as the French newspaper “Le Monde” published a report confirming the closure of 3 out of 6 main roads leading to Bamako.
What about supporting the Russian ally?
Since 2021, the Military Council has adopted a defense strategy according to which it expelled French forces, and turned to Russia as a security partner by bringing in the “African Corps” (formerly Wagner). But the killing of Defense Minister Camara – who Western and African reports agree is the architect of the alliance with Moscow – affects the main channel of communication with the Kremlin.
This was accompanied by the withdrawal of African Legion members from the city of Kidal following negotiations with the opposition led by Algeria.
Ulf Leising, of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told Al Jazeera that the Russian legionnaires had “really lost their credibility,” noting that they had left Kidal, leaving behind equipment and a drone station.
On the other hand, the Kremlin spokesman confirmed that his country’s forces would remain in Mali to “combat extremism.” Press reports indicate that Russian forces provided air support to the Malian forces to prevent the attackers from achieving wider penetrations near the capital, at a time when this role is being increasingly questioned by analysts and experts.
For their part, the opposition militants sent clear messages, and separatist spokesman Mohamed Mouloud Ramadane said: “We do not have a special problem with Russia… Our problem lies with the ruling regime in Bamako.”
Ramadan justified their targeting of the Russians by saying that they “supported those who committed serious crimes and massacres, and destroyed cities and villages,” stressing that their goal is “the Russians’ permanent withdrawal from Azawad and all of Mali.”
Will Bamako fall? Survival and collapse scenarios
Despite the armed groups’ statement that the regime “will fall sooner or later,” experts do not expect Bamako to witness a sweeping military invasion in the short term, due to the absence of the numerical capacity necessary to control a crowded capital of about 4 million people.
In this context, a report issued by the Critical Threat Project (CTP), an American research initiative affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute specializing in analyzing security threats, shows that the striking force of the group to support Islam and Muslims is estimated at only about 6,000 fighters, many of whom are distributed across vast areas between Mali and Burkina Faso.
The center points out that this number remains very small compared to the groups that have historically succeeded in overthrowing governments and controlling entire countries, and which had many times this number compared to the size of the regular forces.
Therefore, the militants adopt a strangulation strategy instead of the classic intrusion.
Scenarios vary regarding the fate of the Authority:
Shock does not mean collapse: Ofigwe Egwego, an expert on coastal affairs, said in an interview with Al Jazeera that the attack was “a surprise and a shock” to the authorities, but he ruled out that the days of military rule were numbered, stressing that “the scene is more complex.”
Overthrowing the military council or creating conditions for its collapse: The Critical Threats Project report concludes that the operational goal of the attacks is not direct control, but rather “the overthrow of the current junta or the creation of conditions for its collapse,” noting that the armed group ultimately seeks to engage with “new authorities in Bamako that it can greatly influence.”
According to what the report quoted journalists and researchers, the attacks sparked “a political crisis in Bamako that could lead to the overthrow of Goeta.”
Sources reported to the Institute that “elements in the Malian armed forces and the government support General Malick Diaw to assume the presidency of the Transitional Council,” describing Diaw as “a consensual candidate to oust Goeta while keeping the army in control of the government.”
For its part, the authority is seeking to consolidate its internal front, and in a move to deny rumors of his escape, interim President Assimi Goita appeared in a televised speech to confirm that “the situation is under control,” acknowledging at the same time that “the situation is very dangerous.”
Goeta called on Malians to exercise “reason, not panic,” calling for a “national uprising” in the face of division, in an attempt to strengthen his legitimacy at a moment when militants are trying to strangle his capital with a siege.
