Published On 4/28/2026
The World Bank expected, on Tuesday, that energy prices would jump by 24% in 2026, to their highest levels since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine four years ago, if the turmoil in energy markets resulting from the war in the Middle East ends next May.
The World Bank said, in its latest report on the outlook for commodity markets, that the prices of these commodities may rise further if hostilities escalate in the region and supply disruptions continue for a longer period than expected.
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The bank added that its basic scenario assumes that shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to levels close to what they were before the war by next October, but it said that the risks “clearly tend” towards higher prices.
The International Financial Corporation’s basic scenario expects a 16% rise in commodity prices in 2026, in light of the jump witnessed in energy and fertilizer prices, and the prices of a number of major metals reaching record levels.
The biggest oil shock
The World Bank said that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping traffic in the strait, which before the war carried 35% of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade, caused the largest shock to oil supplies ever.
He added that Brent crude prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the beginning of the year.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday, exceeding $110 per barrel, as efforts to end the US-Iran war faltered and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, keeping energy supplies, fertilizers and other goods from the main production region in the Middle East out of the reach of global buyers.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told Reuters, “The oil price exceeding $110 per barrel reflects a market that is rapidly reassessing geopolitical risks,” and added, “With peace talks faltering and no clear path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, traders are taking into account the possibility of a continued interruption of a vital artery for global supplies.”
He added, “Even in the best of scenarios, any agreement between the United States and Iran is likely to be limited and partial, leaving the Strait issue unresolved, which means the risks of higher prices continue.”
The World Bank said that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping traffic in the strait, which before the war carried 35% of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade, caused the largest shock to oil supplies ever.
He added that Brent crude prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the beginning of the year.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday, exceeding $110 per barrel, as efforts to end the US-Iran war faltered and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, keeping energy supplies, fertilizers and other goods from the main production region in the Middle East out of the reach of global buyers.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told Reuters, “The oil price exceeding $110 per barrel reflects a market that is rapidly reassessing geopolitical risks,” and added, “With peace talks faltering and no clear path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, traders are taking into account the possibility of a continued interruption of a vital artery for global supplies.”
He added, “Even in the best of scenarios, any agreement between the United States and Iran is likely to be limited and partial, leaving the Strait issue unresolved, which means the risks of higher prices continue.”
