Published On 4/29/2026
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Last update: 05:36 (Mecca time)
American officials and informed sources revealed that American intelligence agencies – at the request of senior officials in the administration of President Donald Trump – are studying possible Iranian reactions if the president decides to declare “unilateral victory” in the war against Iran.
These intelligence moves come at a time when the war has turned into a “heavy political burden” that threatens the chances of the Republican Party in the midterm elections scheduled for later this year.
Opinion polls (Reuters/Ipsos) show a decline in the popularity of the war; Only 26% of Americans believe that the campaign is worth its costs, while only 25% believe that it has strengthened the security of the United States.
While sources familiar with the White House discussions confirm that Trump is “fully aware” of this political price that he and his party are paying as a result of the continuation of the war that broke out two months ago.
In contrast, the Wall Street Journal revealed that President Trump issued instructions to his aides – today, Wednesday – to prepare to impose a prolonged blockade on Iran, preferring the option of “economic strangulation” and preventing shipping through ports over the options of bombing or complete withdrawal.
During an official dinner in the presence of King Charles III, Trump spoke about Iran, saying, “We defeated this opponent militarily,” and “We will never allow this opponent to possess a nuclear weapon.” Commenting on that, he added, “Charles agrees with me more than I agree with myself.”
Two scenarios for declaring victory
According to the sources, intelligence analyzed two scenarios for Iranian reaction:
- A unilateral declaration of victory with the withdrawal of American forces, a scenario that has been estimated since the first days of the war, while intelligence estimates that Tehran will interpret this measure as an “outright victory” for itself.
- A unilateral declaration of victory while maintaining a heavy military presence, which Iran is likely to view as a “negotiating tactic,” does not necessarily lead to an end to hostilities.
While a final decision has not yet been made, the sources believe that de-escalation may relieve political pressure on Trump, but it carries the risks of enabling Iran to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threatening Washington’s allies.
The sources – who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity so that they could discuss sensitive intelligence issues – said that the goal was to understand the repercussions of Trump’s possible withdrawal from a conflict that some officials and advisers fear will contribute to heavy losses for Republicans in the midterm elections that will be held later this year.
In a related context, the Director of the Office of Public Affairs at the CIA, Liz Lyons, denied that the agency was aware of this specific assessment, while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Pressure on many levels
In this context, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly confirmed that the United States is still communicating with the Iranian side regarding the negotiations, stressing that President Trump “will not rush to conclude a bad deal” and will not sign any agreement that does not put American national security first, while emphasizing the commitment to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon.
For his part, Trump showed a hardening stance on the diplomatic track by canceling the visit of his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan, declaring that the dialogue requires a direct initiative from Tehran.
On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent described Iran’s parallel banking system as a “vital lifeline” for financing violence, while the US State Department affirmed the continuation of the “maximum pressure” policy to deter the Iranian regime and hold it accountable for threatening American interests.
In return, the political assistant of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy threatened to burn giant American ships and employ the capabilities of the “Resistance Front” to respond with unprecedented military surprises, if any new aggression was launched against Iran.
Excluded options
On the ground, the US Central Command revealed the consequences of the continued naval blockade on Iran, as it led to a reduction in trade movement, as more than 20 ships are currently docked in the Iranian port of Chabahar, compared to an average of 5 ships per day before the conflict.
But on the other hand, 20 days after Trump announced the ceasefire, intensive diplomatic efforts failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran closed it and planted mines in it, causing global energy prices and gasoline prices to rise locally in America.
On the military level, the sources indicated that Iran took advantage of the ceasefire period – which has been ongoing since April 8 – to extract military equipment, including missile launchers and drones, that had been buried as a result of the American and Israeli bombing, making the cost of resuming the all-out war higher than it was previously.
Despite “tremendous” internal pressure to end the war, several military options are still officially on the table, including renewing air strikes targeting Iranian military and political leaders.
On the other hand, the possibility of the option of a “ground invasion” of Iranian territory has decreased compared to previous weeks, and it is currently described as the least likely.
