Even though the summit was decided for City…why does the “supercomputer” expect Arsenal to be crowned? | sports

Although Manchester City succeeded in defeating Arsenal in the 33rd round of the English Premier League a few days ago with a score of 2-1, a result that reshaped the calculations of the title race before the final meters of the season, the supercomputer’s predictions still give Arsenal the advantage of winning.

The Opta statistical computer reading provided a completely different assessment from the prevailing media impression that Manchester City is closest to the title.

Before the start of the match, Opta’s simulation – which relies on 10,000 hypothetical scenarios for the rest of the season – gave Arsenal a huge 85.2% chance of winning, compared to only 14.8% for Manchester City. That is, the difference was clear in favor of Arsenal according to the purely statistical model.

After City won this summit, the balance of expectations did not turn in their favor as one might think. Rather, the statistical computer reset the odds with Arsenal remaining in the lead with a 73% chance of winning the title, while Manchester City’s chances rose significantly to 27%, but they remain lower than their competitor.

Why is Arsenal closest to the title?

This assessment is based on several key factors within the model, most notably that City is required to continue an almost complete winning streak until the end of the season, a scenario that the model classifies as difficult to achieve in a competitive environment such as the English Premier League.

The Opta model also takes into account the strength of the remaining schedules, as it sees that Arsenal has – relatively – less complex matches in the final rounds, which gives it a statistical advantage in maintaining the lead, compared to Manchester City, which faces opponents who are still competing for European places.

However, the model confirms that the title race has not yet been decided in any way, because any possible stumble by both sides in matches that seem relatively easy may completely reshuffle the possibilities, all the way to the goal difference scenario.

According to Opta’s reading, the general picture still indicates that Arsenal is the closest mathematically, but the differences have become narrower, which makes the end of the season open to more than one possibility, according to changing probability paths in each round.