Wall Street Journal: Can America protect Taiwan after the Iran war? | policy

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Concerns are rising within American circles that the current war on Iran is depleting American weapons stockpiles to an extent that may affect Washington’s ability to implement its defense plans towards Taiwan if a conflict erupts with China, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.

The newspaper indicates that America has exhausted huge quantities of advanced munitions since the start of the war on Iran on February 28, as estimates indicate the use of more than a thousand long-range Tomahawk missiles, in addition to between 1,500 and 2,000 advanced air defense missiles, including THAAD, Patriot, and Standard systems.

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Officials warn that rebuilding these stocks may take up to 6 years, which has raised growing concern within the US administration about readiness in the short term.

The Wall Street Journal report indicates that this attrition sparked internal discussions about the need to modify military plans, especially those related to the defense of Taiwan.

Although the Pentagon is developing multiple scenarios to confront global challenges, some officials acknowledge that any near conflict with China could expose an “munitions gap,” which could increase the risks facing American forces.

Mixed estimates

On the other hand, other officials believe that this gap can be reduced through huge investments in the defense manufacturing base and a focus on producing less expensive weapons in larger quantities.

Despite these warnings, a number of senior officials seek to reduce the seriousness of the situation by saying that the war on Iran provides important combat experience. White House spokeswoman Carolyn Levitt confirms that America possesses “more than enough weapons and ammunition” to carry out its tasks, while Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stressed that the US military still maintains a “deep arsenal of capabilities.”

However, the report points out that estimates by independent research centers are more pessimistic, as a report issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that the war consumed large proportions of American stocks, including about 27% of Tomahawk missiles, more than two-thirds of Patriot missiles, and more than 80% of THAAD missiles.

A strong opponent and a costly conflict

In a broader strategic context, the report indicates that China is a more powerful and complex adversary than Iran, thanks to its advanced military capabilities, including a nuclear arsenal exceeding 600 warheads, missile programs, and advanced drones.

War simulations conducted by American research centers indicate that any conflict around Taiwan would be very costly, with the possibility of tens of thousands of casualties and significant losses in ships and aircraft.

The Wall Street Journal also highlights an additional factor: the redeployment of some US air defense systems from the Pacific to the Middle East to support the war on Iran, reflecting the challenges associated with managing global military commitments.

To face these challenges, the Pentagon is rushing to boost weapons production by concluding agreements with major defense companies such as Lockheed Martin and RTX to significantly increase the production of missiles and interception systems. The US administration is also seeking $350 billion from Congress to invest in ammunition production and strengthen the defense industrial base.



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