Under the weight of heavy charges ranging from “conspiracy against state security” to “money laundering,” Tunisia is experiencing the most severe human rights and political turning point since President Kais Saied announced his exceptional measures in July 2021.
With the issuance of judicial rulings totaling nearly 100 years in one week against political figures, a fundamental question arises about the horizon of this open confrontation. Is the authority moving towards closing the political arc completely, or is the country heading towards a clash that may impose different paths?
Almost 5 years ago, Tunisia – after President Kais Saied announced a set of exceptional measures – entered a sharp turn that changed the features of the political scene, as it began, according to critics, towards what they describe as a “new dictatorship.”
Narrative conflict
The Tunisian scene is divided between two clashing visions. Lawyer and legal researcher Qaysar Al-Sayyah believes that what is happening are “purely judicial trials” and not political ones, stressing that the judicial system is acting based on the elements of real crimes related to money smuggling and attacks on state institutions.
Al-Sayyah stressed – during his speech on the “Scenarios” program – that the regime is progressing “steadfastly” towards consecrating the rule of law, considering that the opposition lacks programs and a popular base, and is trying to give a political character to crimes of a “public right.”
On the other hand, former member of the House of Representatives, Maher Al-Madhyoub, describes this course of action as a “false claim,” stressing that the Tunisian people are now living in a comprehensive state of “temporary release.”
Al-Madhyoub believes that the authority uses the judiciary as a deterrent tool through “dark rooms,” citing the dismissal of judges and the appointment of others by direct presidential decision, which transformed the judiciary from an “authority” into a “function” affiliated with the Carthage Palace, aiming to issue retaliatory rulings against political figures such as Rached Ghannouchi and Ahmed Najib Chebbi.
International human rights bodies, including the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, see the Tunisian scene as a setback for justice and the rule of law and sham trials that violate legal procedures, and warned of what they described as unprecedented repression of human rights activists and civil society organizations.
For his part, former Tunisian minister and human rights activist Kamal Jendoubi analyzes this case as a process of “recharacterization of political action” to appear as a security or criminal threat.
Jendoubi believes that the authority seeks to give repression a legal and moral cover through the “anti-terrorism” laws and “Decree 54,” which has led to a terrible setback in the rule of law that has put Tunisia under the microscope of international organizations.
Expected scenarios
The guests drew 3 possible paths for the future of the crisis in Tunisia:
- The “fragile fait accompli” scenario: It is proposed by Jendoubi, as the authority seeks to impose a new political reality by paralyzing civil and political society through repression. But he warns that this path is inherently “fragile,” as it does not provide solutions to the worsening economic and living crises, making the apparent stability vulnerable to exploding at any moment.
- Comprehensive National Dialogue Scenario: The solvent adopts it as the only way out to avoid collapse. He believes that returning to a real dialogue that puts Tunisia’s interests above all else, away from policies of “exclusion and betrayal,” is the key to ending the political impasse and saving the state from disintegration.
Scenario of legal resolution and continuation of the path: This is what Caesar Sayyah sees as an inevitable fate, as the state will continue to implement its judicial decisions and purge institutions, betting on the opposition’s self-erosion due to its failure to provide real alternatives, leading to consolidating the foundations of the “New Tunisia” according to the vision of the July 25 path.
Between the authority’s ambition to reach a resolution, and the opposition’s insistence on steadfastness, the Tunisian scene remains open to all possibilities, in light of human rights warnings that replacing “dialogue” with “trials” may lead to the destruction of the civil structure that has characterized Tunisian society for decades.
Published On 4/24/2026
