Published On 4/23/2026
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Last update: 13:34 (Mecca time)
Commodity markets returned to the heart of geopolitical tensions, after the stalemate between America and Iran pushed oil prices further above the $100 barrier, while gold came under pressure as inflation fears escalated and US interest rate cut bets declined.
The developments show, as reported by Reuters, that the markets have begun to reprice the “truce without a solution” scenario, where the ceasefire continues while trade and maritime restrictions remain in place.
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According to Investing.com, Brent crude futures rose by 1.5% to $103.5 per barrel – at the time of writing the report – after exceeding the $100 level in Wednesday’s settlement for the first time in more than two weeks, according to Reuters.
US West Texas Intermediate crude also rose 1.6% to $94.4 per barrel.
The Russian TASS agency reported that Brent crude oil exceeded $106 per barrel during trading for the first time since April 7 on the Intercontinental Stock Exchange, before reducing its gains later.
Shipping disruptions continue
ING analysts said in a note reported by Reuters that the oil market “is reevaluating expectations with little indication of progress being made to find a solution in the Gulf.”
They added that Iran’s detention of two ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz indicates that shipping disruptions will continue.
Although US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire at the request of Pakistani mediators, Washington and Tehran still impose restrictions on the movement of ships through the strait, through which about 20% of the world’s daily supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the outbreak of war in late February, according to Reuters.
America also maintained its naval blockade on Iranian trade, while the head of the Iranian Shura Council (parliament) and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that a complete ceasefire “is meaningless” unless the blockade is lifted, according to Reuters.
Record US exports
On the other hand, the unrest prompted Asian and European countries to increase their purchases of American crude. Data from the US Energy Information Administration, according to Reuters, showed that total exports of US crude oil and petroleum products increased by 137,000 barrels per day to a record level of 12.88 million barrels per day.
US crude inventories also increased by 1.9 million barrels, while they were expected to decrease by 1.2 million barrels.
On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 million barrels, compared to expectations of a decline of 1.5 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 3.4 million barrels, compared to expectations of 2.5 million barrels.
Gold is on the defensive
According to data from Investing.com, gold prices fell with the rise in oil, as gold fell in spot transactions by 1% to $4,690.8 per ounce, and US futures contracts for June delivery also fell by 1% to $4,705.7, at the time of writing the report.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that the return of Brent crude above $100 keeps inflation fears “at the forefront” and puts gold in a “defensive position.”
He added that the “ceasefire while the siege continues” scenario could continue for months, turning the short energy spike into a long-term inflation factor that pressures the precious metal from the yield angle.
A poll conducted by Reuters showed that the Federal Reserve may wait at least 6 months before any rate cut this year, while traders now see only a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, after the markets had expected two cuts before the outbreak of the war.
Between oil rising and gold falling, the markets seem stuck between an incomplete political truce and inflation that may last longer than they expected a few weeks ago.
