Published On 4/22/2026
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Last update: 21:15 (Mecca time)
The repercussions of the war with Iran extended to the cup of coffee, after fears of continued shipping and energy disruption pushed coffee prices up, coinciding with climate threats to Brazilian crops. Bloomberg reports that the coffee market is facing dual pressures from geopolitics and weather at the same time.
Arabica coffee contracts in New York rose at the largest pace in two weeks, as they rose during trading by up to 3.1%, before settling at gains amounting to 2% to $2.883 per pound, according to data reported by Bloomberg, and Robusta coffee in London also rose by 2.9%.
Hormuz pays the costs
US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, while peace talks remained suspended, according to Bloomberg. Despite the decline in the risk of direct military confrontation, the markets still lack clear indications of the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil and gas corridors in the world, which keeps energy prices supported.
Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodity market research at Rabobank, said that the risk of prolonged conflict affects a number of agricultural commodities, including coffee, with the impact worsening as approved stocks of Arabica and Robusta beans decline. He added that the rise in oil prices leads to increased shipping and logistics costs for agricultural commodities.
Coffee prices are likely to be affected due to the fuel-intensive nature of transporting the beans, as they are shipped by truck from inland regions to ports before being exported, said Darrell Christ, senior vice president of agricultural and soft commodities in Asia at StoneX Group.
This means, according to Bloomberg, that any increase in fuel is directly reflected in the cost of transporting coffee from the fields to the final consumer.
Brazil increases the pressure
In addition to the war, the market is exposed to additional support from weather concerns in Brazil, the largest global coffee producer. Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Comtrends Research, said the ongoing drought threatens Brazil’s crop prospects.
He added that the rise in the value of the Brazilian real reduces export incentives, which tightens global supply and supports prices.
The gains were not limited to coffee, as the prices of cocoa and raw sugar also rose in New York, according to what Bloomberg reported, indicating the widening impact of tensions and high energy costs on food and raw materials markets.
While traders are monitoring the path of calm between America and Iran, the market is at the same time watching the sky over Brazil, where politics and weather are now jointly determining the global price of coffee.
