Published 00.29
A number of NATO countries fear Russian attacks after the war setbacks.
And time can be tight.
– We expect various forms of escalation in the coming weeks and months, says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Sources within two NATO countries state that Russia prepares “military provocations” against the Baltic countries and Poland, writes The Guardian.
And the threat may be imminent, the sources told the newspaper.
The Russian occupation government in Crimea declared a state of emergency on Friday after weeks of Ukrainian drone attacks that led to power outages and panic among tourists.
Offensive for 40 days
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi states that the country is launching a 40-day offensive to “influence Russia to end the war”.
In the tense situation with a series of setbacks for Putin, several countries on NATO’s eastern flank now fear that Russia may play a new card to reverse the fortunes – and reduce the pressure at home.
The Guardian’s NATO sources state that Russia’s aim may also be to test the White House’s willingness to support the Baltic countries militarily in the event of an attack.
It is unclear what a Russian attack on NATO would look like.
Waiting for hybrid attacks
– We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland, the Latvian intelligence service states according to the newspaper.
It is stated that it would not be a full-scale attack.
The intelligence service states that Russia does not have the capacity to open a second front.
On the other hand, they are considering hybrid attacks, for example with robots, drones or other measures aimed at sending a message that the countries in NATO should stop supporting Ukraine if they do not want to get into trouble themselves, writes The Guardian.
Escalation may be coming soon
A high-ranking political source from another NATO country tells the newspaper:
– We receive intelligence that indicates that Vladimir Putin is planning something directed at the Baltic states.
At a summit for NATO’s eastern flank, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is now speaking openly about the fear that Russia may strike.
– We also share, without exception, the view that the situation is very unstable and that we expect various forms of escalation in the coming weeks and months, he said on Thursday evening.
“Will not accept loss”
– We want to prepare together as a group of countries that are directly exposed to this risk.
Experts now suspect that Putin is desperately trying to turn the war to his advantage.
– Moscow will look for ways to break the current trend, either through horizontal escalation – that is, spreading the conflict to other countries – or by acting elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively accept a loss, says Russia expert Keir Giles at the Chatham House think tank to The Guardian.
