Between Kyiv and Minsk.. Is the Ukraine war approaching a new front? | policy

Writer Daria Fedotova believed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s repeated reminder of his ultimatum to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko indicates that Kiev will launch an attack on Belarus in the near future.

In an article in the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, Fedotova addressed the escalation of tension between Minsk and Kiev, against the backdrop of Belarus receiving warnings from Ukraine at the intelligence and military levels to stop supporting Russia, and in particular to remove repeater stations in the Gomel and Brest regions, which allegedly facilitate Russian air strikes on Ukraine.

The writer pointed out that the Ukrainian messages seemed in tone to be a direct order, which Zelensky confirmed by saying, “If Belarus does not remove these stations, we will do it ourselves.”

Pretexts to declare mobilization

Fedotova quoted military expert Alexander Arutinov as saying that Ukraine is keen to open a second front to declare general mobilization and solve the biggest problem facing its army, which is the lack of manpower.

The expert explains that there are many young people in Ukraine who are of conscription age and cannot be called up yet, because the maximum age for conscription is 25 years.

There is one way – according to the expert – to reduce this limit, which is to involve an additional party in the war, and to say that Ukraine is not only fighting Russia, but also Belarus.

The author recalls that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will not join the war, despite Ukraine’s attempts to drag Belarus into it, noting that the first step in this context was taken after Ukraine launched an attack on a bus carrying children in the Bryansk region, describing the scene as the first seed that fell and then sprouted.

Meanwhile, the writer considered that the Belarusian leader made a mistake by trying to improve relations with Washington and calm tensions with Kiev, and she saw that Lukashenko’s gesture was interpreted by Ukraine as indicators of weakness, which prompted it to raise the ceiling of its demands from Belarus.

However, the author believes that it is difficult to predict whether Ukraine will move forward with dragging Belarus into the war, given that the American president “suffers from some cognitive problems,” as well as Europe’s lack of enthusiasm for a new war on its borders.

Contradictory accounts

Even if Ukraine’s situation on the front was good, opening a second front would not improve the situation, as forces would have to be withdrawn from somewhere to cover the new front, as writer Vasily Stoyakin sees.

At the same time, the writer warns – in her article on the Vzglyad website – that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “no matter how clownish and drug-addicted he may seem, is an extremely dangerous opponent, because he has been waging a war for more than 4 years against Russia, against his political opponents, and some of his Western allies.”

Although Zelensky did not achieve victory – as the author says – he retained power, and this in itself is conclusive evidence that he does not fear war with Belarus, because the Ukrainian side is well fortified.

Zelensky has a clear interest in igniting a new war. He is not at all satisfied with ending the war with Russia, because that means holding elections, and voters will not forgive him for the bombing, corruption, and loss of Donbass.

by Fedotova

Although the Belarusian army takes the experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war into account in its combat training, it is not ready for war with Ukraine.

Moreover – as the author points out – Belarus still has long borders with NATO countries, which must be protected, and therefore Zelensky has the right to expect that Lukashenko will try to avoid involvement in any conflict until the end, and if he is drawn into it, it will be limited to exchanging air strikes with drones, and will not in any way resemble the exchange of strikes between Russia and Ukraine.

According to the writer’s opinion, Zelensky has a clear interest in igniting a new war. He is not at all satisfied with ending the war with Russia, because that means holding elections, and voters will not forgive him for the bombing, corruption, and loss of Donbass and part of Tavria.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf provides an opportunity for US President Donald Trump to show his voters at least some results, including pressure on Ukraine and its allies to force Kiev to adhere to the peace agreement.

This idea explains that the outbreak of the Ukrainian-Belarusian conflict will invalidate all previous agreements, because it introduces a third party into the negotiations with a set of demands and grievances, as it is described.

Therefore, we will have to start over, and time is running out for Trump, as the midterm elections are approaching, and the Republicans will almost certainly lose them.

Moreover, Zelensky needs to drag Europe into the war. In a major war involving European allies, all of his domestic and foreign policy commitments become futile.

According to the writer, Minsk’s public talk about the danger of a clash with Europe indicates that Zelensky’s threats should be taken seriously, as he does not intend to stop, and has all the necessary capabilities to escalate the conflict.

The author concludes that Kiev sees the summer of 2026 as an opportunity to begin implementing this scenario, especially since the Ukrainian military leadership has identified the first 500 targets for Ukrainian strikes in Belarus.