Published on 6/17/2026
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on the oil market issued today, Wednesday, that the global oil market will gradually recover from the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the outbreak of the Iran war, before witnessing a large surplus in 2027.
The United States and Iran reached an agreement to end the war that has been ongoing between them for more than three months, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the American blockade on Iranian ports, which may end the largest disruption in oil supplies in history, which led to the cessation of production of more than 14 million barrels per day from the Middle East, according to what Reuters reported.
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The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, added: “If the agreement holds, exports and production from the Gulf region are expected to witness a gradual recovery, especially since Iranian oil exports will resume fully once the US blockade is lifted.”
Oil prices fell today, Wednesday, after the agreement between Tehran and Washington to stop the war, to about $78 per barrel of Brent crude, while the price of Texas Intermediate crude reached about $75 per barrel, according to what the American network CNBC reported.
Oil surplus next year
The agency said in its first forecast for the year 2027 that the oil market will witness a large surplus in supply next year, with expectations of an increase in the global supply of oil by about 8 million barrels per day and an increase in demand by only two million barrels per day.
The agency added, “This situation may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to refill depleted reservoirs or build new strategic reserves, at a time when countries are reviewing their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis.”
The Energy Agency stated, according to what was reported by the American network CNBC, that the global supply of oil is now expected to decrease by 3.9 million barrels per day on an annual basis in 2026 to 102.4 million barrels per day, before rising to 110.3 million barrels per day next year.
Recovery will take time
But the International Energy Agency warned that a full recovery may not be immediate, noting that “key shipping lines will have to be removed, and supply chains will take time to return to normal.”
The IEA noted that despite significant declines in demand for crude oil and petroleum derivatives, global crude inventories “continue to erode at a record pace.”
The agency explained that global oil stocks may reach historic low levels this year, before the market balance turns into surplus by the end of next year.
