Published on 6/6/2026
The war in the Middle East put the OPEC+ alliance facing one of its most difficult tests since its founding, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz deprived global markets of a large portion of oil supplies, at a time when the traditional tools used by the alliance to achieve stability became less effective in the face of widespread geopolitical turmoil.
According to a report by Agence France-Presse, this comes as the energy ministers of the 21 OPEC Plus member countries prepare to hold their semi-annual meeting on Sunday, amid continued uncertainty in global energy markets.
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Although the sharp rise in oil prices since the outbreak of war on February 28 has boosted the revenues of producing countries, it has also revealed the limits of the coalition’s ability to compensate for the shortage in supplies when the crisis is linked to the export corridors themselves and not only to production levels.
The spare capacity dilemma
The French agency notes that, since the outbreak of the war, Iran has imposed an almost complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which under normal conditions approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass per day, equivalent to about a fifth of global oil supplies.
This step aims to put economic pressure on energy-consuming countries by restricting oil exports coming from the Gulf countries, which in turn represent the backbone of OPEC Plus production.
But the irony, according to the report, is that most of the spare production capacities capable of compensating for any shortfall in global supplies are also concentrated in the Gulf countries, which limits the coalition’s ability to benefit from them in light of the disruption of shipping movement through the strait.
Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said, “Any announcement of an increase in production or adjustment of its targets will only have a limited impact,” as long as oil exports continue to face difficulties in reaching global markets.
OPEC Plus data, according to Agence France-Presse, shows that the alliance’s total production fell from about 43 million barrels per day in February to slightly more than 33 million barrels per day in April, which reflects the extent of the pressure on supplies since the beginning of the crisis.
Repercussions of the UAE’s withdrawal
The alliance faces an additional challenge after the UAE withdrew from OPEC Plus at the beginning of last May, in a move that analysts considered an important blow to the group’s ability to manage balances within the market.
The UAE was the fourth largest producer in the alliance, and also possesses large untapped production capabilities, which is one of the main tools that OPEC Plus was using to deal with market fluctuations.
The French news agency quoted Lawrence Harr, a professor at the University of Brighton, as saying that the UAE seeks to increase its oil production and revenues in the coming years, adding that it “does not want to have what it does imposed on it, but rather wants to increase its revenues.”
Analysts believe that reopening the Strait of Hormuz in the future may push the UAE to increase its production independently, which may create direct competition with OPEC Plus policies regarding oil supply management and market shares.
Concerns about the cohesion of the coalition
According to the report, concern is not limited to the UAE’s exit, but also extends to the possibility of other members withdrawing if the current pressures continue for a long time.
Humayun Valakshahi, an analyst at Kepler Group, said that Iraq’s exit from OPEC Plus “will mean the end of the alliance,” referring to the importance of Baghdad as one of the largest producers within the group.
On the other hand, analysts expect that Saudi Arabia, which has the greatest weight within OPEC Plus, will make extensive efforts to maintain the cohesion of the alliance and prevent any additional withdrawals, whether by showing greater flexibility in production quotas or by easing restrictions imposed on some members.
Hansen also pointed out that the mechanism to compensate for excess production that the organization adopted over the past years has lost a large part of its effectiveness in light of the widespread interruptions resulting from the war, adding that OPEC Plus “cannot do much” to address the current crisis.
Market stability is at stake
The primary mission of OPEC Plus, in accordance with its stated goals, is to ensure stable oil supplies to consumers and achieve stable revenues for producers at the same time.
However, Agence France-Presse believes that this task has become more complex in light of a market facing unprecedented disruptions in shipping, supplies, and the security of sea lanes.
Currently, China is contributing to limiting the pace of price increases by reducing its oil purchases compared to usual rates, while relying more on its strategic reserves, according to what the report quoted Falakshahi.
Current developments indicate that OPEC Plus’s ability to influence oil markets is no longer linked only to production levels, but has become increasingly linked to geopolitical and logistical factors that go beyond the coalition’s control, most notably the security of maritime trade routes and global energy flows.
