ODENSE. Sweden must beat Denmark.
Not that the World Cup dream dies immediately otherwise.
But because no one really knows how this national team reacts when everything is put to the test.
Tony Gustavsson has always been clear about one thing. This group stage was to be decided in June.
Therefore, it is no surprise that Sweden is here now, with a direct place at the World Cup within reach and a group final against Denmark awaiting.
But there is a crucial difference between being prepared for the situation and knowing how to handle it.
Because if Sweden doesn’t win, a playoff awaits and that’s where the uncertainty begins.
No, the WC dream is not over with a loss.
The qualification system is generous towards the teams in the A division. Sweden will still get the chance to play Brazil.
But the road will be longer. And much more unpleasant.
Tougher road
After a first qualifying meeting against opposition from the C division or one of the best group twos there, a decisive double meeting awaits against a team that made it through the much tougher path.
It can be tough if the lot doesn’t turn out well.
At the time of writing, it could for example be Poland with Ewa Pajor. Belgium under Elisabet Gunnarsdottir. An advancing Portugal or why not the European Championship quarter-finalists Switzerland.
Teams that Sweden should be able to beat, against which they have good championship memories.
But there are also painful memories from Switzerland, where the Blue and Yellow Olympic dream was crushed.
That is why the Denmark match feels bigger than the table shows.
Because when you listen to Tony Gustavsson, you can hear that he is still getting to know his own team.
Not as in who will play.
Without how they react when the pressure is at its greatest.
Unveiled the eleven
The Swedish starting eleven can already be broadly read between the lines.
Jennifer Falk is still first in the finish line.
Smilla Holmberg has made the right-back spot her own. Anna Sandberg looks to be just as obvious on the other side.
Filippa Angeldahl and Julia Zigiotti Olme have emerged as a radar pair centrally, with the latter already tasked with playing physical against Pernille Harder if the Danish star comes into play.
Johanna Rytting Kaneryd is a first choice on the right when she is healthy. Monica Jusu Bah has won the trust of the left time after time.
Gustavsson has emphasized that Felicia Schröder played her best international match so far against Denmark last time when she played as a ten.
He also confirms that Stina Blackstenius is once again the team captain and is thus in the starting eleven.
Most of it feels established.
Go troll in central defense
Except where Sweden most needed security.
In central defense.
Nathalie Björn was supposed to be the new defense general in this national team, but instead she has missed the entire World Cup qualification.
Now she is around the team anyway. Not to play. But to support.
That says something about the significance of these days.
Since Magdalena Eriksson ended her national team career, Sweden’s center back line-up has almost been empty. Elma Junttila Nelhage, 23, stepped forward as a solution, but she too has had to withdraw her offer due to injury.
Therefore, Amanda Ilestedt and Bella Andersson look set to start together against Denmark.
Two players who have never started an international match together.
In the most important match of the year.
It’s not criticism. That is the reality.
How do they handle pressure?
And maybe that’s also why Gustavsson stood in a sterile conference room in a hotel here in Odense and talked so openly about what happens if Sweden doesn’t manage to win.
If this young team is not ready for that pressure, then the experience will become part of the journey towards the fall playoffs.
It is a line of reasoning that is both wise and reasonable, but it also contains a warning signal.
Because the playoffs are no longer about playing good football.
Playoffs are about survival.
About dealing with nerves.
About winning when the consequences of failure hang over every pass and nobody knows how this Swedish national team will react.
That is why the Denmark match is a must-see match.
Not mathematically, but mentally.
Because Sweden has never missed a WC on the women’s side.
Never.
Gotta take the chance
Now the responsibility lies with a national team that is still growing, still learning and still searching for its final form.
If there is a playoff, everything changes.
Then it’s about taking the last chance. About winning games where one mistake can be fatal. About defending a history that no Swedish women’s national team generation has had to defend before.
Here in Odense, HC Andersen’s hometown, some of the world’s most famous fairy tales were born.
Sweden wants to write a much simpler story.
Win against Denmark.
Take the direct seat.
Avoid throwing yourself into the open sea.
Because of course there is still a lifeline if everything goes wrong. The only question is whether anyone really wants to cling to it all the way to Brazil.
This is how Sweden gets to the World Cup:
Two matches remain in the group stage in the World Cup qualifiers, where only one of the A-division groups (which includes Sweden) can book a World Cup place.
Sweden has it in its own hands as two victories, against Denmark today and against Italy, secure advancement.
In the event of a loss against Denmark, it’s over. In the event of a draw, probably also run provided that Denmark do not win their final match against group jumbo Serbia (which they will do).
If Sweden doesn’t get first, a playoff awaits.
In the first playoff round, Sweden will face a team from the qualifying C-division. Either one of the six group winners or one of the two best runners-up. Those matches are played in double-headers in October.
If Sweden wins there, Sweden will be drawn against one of the winners on the other side of the playoff table, where group jumbos from the A division and group winners from the B division are pitted against second and third placers from the B division groups.
There, Sweden can be pitted against everything from Poland and Switzerland to Portugal and Finland.
Those matches are played in November/December.
