What are the messages from Washington and Tehran behind the current escalation? | policy

In parallel with the return of military escalation, the language of mutual threats issued by officials in Washington and in Tehran is increasing, which reflects each party’s vision of the course of the negotiations and the fate of the memorandum of understanding that was relied upon to reach a final and comprehensive agreement that would restore stability to the region and the world.

Rising tone

Following the US military strikes on sites in Iran, US President Donald Trump renewed his threats and criticism of the Iranians, after they targeted 3 ships that were crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Among those threats was his threat to end the memorandum of understanding, and his threat to assassinate Iranian leaders.

On the other hand, the Iranian rhetoric towards Washington escalated at the political and military levels, and officials accused the Trump administration of violating the memorandum of understanding. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said, “America has not yet learned that bullying and breaking covenants will not be without a price, and I will say it clearly: if you strike, you will receive strikes.”

According to Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran, Farah Al-Zaman Shawqi, Iran does not deviate from its position that American threats and strikes will not deter it from defending itself, its national interests and its sovereignty, which was confirmed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry says that the American strikes that targeted sites in 5 Iranian provinces are a violation of the United Nations charters and the first and fifth clauses of the memorandum of understanding, which talk about a ceasefire and allowing Iran to determine the mechanisms and guarantees for safe crossing in the Strait of Hormuz. The Foreign Ministry described the targeting of two railway bridges leading to the city of Mashhad as “war crimes.”

Iran also accuses the United States of pressuring the Sultanate of Oman in an attempt to find alternative corridors and abandon the Iranian-designated paths, and this contravenes – according to it – the memorandum of understanding that was reached with Pakistani and Qatari mediation.

Farah Al-Zaman Shawqi says that Iranian threats to respond include Americans and areas that Tehran says give support to the American army or are a starting point to target.

Escalation and the nuclear file

As for the United States, it confirms that its recent strikes on Iran are linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and that the goal of these strikes is to undermine Tehran’s ability to threaten navigation in the Strait.

Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Washington, Murad Hashem, points out that the American escalation includes, in addition to the military strikes, ending exemptions for Iranian oil subject to sanctions, in addition to threatening to resume the naval blockade of Iranian ports, as there are indications that American ships are preparing for this mission.

According to Hashem, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz imposes priorities on Washington, as opening the Strait was one of its motivations for signing the memorandum of understanding, in addition to alleviating the energy crisis at the global level.

However, the Iranian nuclear program remains a concern for President Trump, given that the approach to this file did not satisfy him, and the Al Jazeera correspondent does not rule out that this file is among the reasons for the current military escalation against Tehran, which is expanding.

But the United States, which currently gives priority to the Strait of Hormuz, leaves the ball in Iran’s court regarding the issue of the ceasefire, as President Trump is betting that the strikes will push Iran to make concessions, but he is also using the electoral assertiveness card, as the correspondent explains.

Opinions vary within the United States regarding the current situation. Some voices, including J.D. Vance, the US Vice President, do not favor going again to an all-out war, but some Republican legislators support renewing the war to complete the bank of goals, but in general – Al Jazeera’s correspondent continues – there is a fear of a return to war.

No indicators

Aside from the American and Iranian narratives regarding their goals in the current military escalation, most experts see little indication that Tehran will make the major concessions that Trump seeks, and Iran also finds itself facing increasing pressure after Washington canceled an exemption that allowed it to sell oil to other countries.

In this regard, Reuters quoted Aaron David Miller, a former negotiator for Middle East affairs in Democratic and Republican administrations: “Trump has put himself in a dilemma… Whether by military or diplomatic means, it does not seem that he will achieve significant gains from Iran.”

Hosni Obaidi, professor of international relations at the University of Geneva, also believes in a previous analysis by Al Jazeera that Iran appears to be in a hurry, as it fears that Washington is content with opening the Strait of Hormuz and will not make any concessions on other issues, because its goal is to prepare for a new round of war.

He added that Iran wants to legitimize the Strait of Hormuz so that it remains its control, but this situation is not consistent with the desires of the Gulf states or the desires of the United States.