Published On 4/7/2026
Financial and economic indicators in the regional energy market faced shifts following the entry into force of the temporary US exemption granted to Iranian oil exports, and although billions of dollars may be a step away from Iran after signing the memorandum of understanding with the United States, access to them is not guaranteed.
Amer Al-Shoubaki, an expert in oil and energy affairs, breaks down the data of the digital and legal gap between total sales and the net funds available for spending, reviewing the implications of the flow of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz on the movement of global prices, and the extent of Tehran’s ability to transform this temporary relief into an economic gain.
Official data indicate that this 60-day time window – which began on June 22 and continues until August 21, 2026 – gave Tehran a financial breathing space, as Iranian oil exports jumped during June by more than 70% to reach about 640 thousand barrels per day, according to Reuters estimates.
Economy “inside a recovery room”
In his reading of the current situation, Amer Al-Shobaki explained that the Iranian economy is going through structural difficulties as a result of the accumulation of previous measures, noting that the current American measures represent temporary facilities to pass a minimum amount of cash liquidity.
Al-Shoubaki added: “The Iranian economy is now in the recovery room, and perhaps these incentives from the American side came only to pass some oxygen, so that this economy can breathe and restore part of its normal activity without sanctions.”
Al-Shoubaki identified 3 axes that govern this development:
- Expected balances and assets: Its value is about $12 billion under the current memorandum of understanding.
- Investment Fund: The strategic project that Tehran is looking to establish to support infrastructure.
- Time limit for exemptions: It is limited by force of law to the current 60-day window.
Al-Shoubaki warned of an expected delay in receiving the proceeds of sold oil, extending for weeks, due to legal, commercial and banking obstacles.
He pointed out that importing countries – such as Japan – have expressed a desire to deal with Iranian oil, but they are afraid of financial measures, because Tehran is still included on the blacklist of the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
Al-Shoubaki pointed out that actual exports may exceed the announced data due to Tehran’s resort to liquefying floating stocks that were previously prepared outside the scope of the American blockade.
Oil for food
In his presentation of the asset management mechanism, which is being discussed to supply basic goods instead of direct cash liquidity, Al-Shobaki described this mechanism as including restrictions that affect Iranian commercial options, as it limits Tehran’s freedom to choose its international markets.
Al-Shoubaki explained that the administration of US President Donald Trump drafted this memorandum to be more stringent compared to the 2015 nuclear agreement, explaining this by Washington’s keenness to restrict the use of revenues to prevent them from being directed towards the military sectors, in addition to seeking to exploit these funds locally by forcing Tehran to buy agricultural products to support the American agricultural sector.
Production challenges
Regarding the production capacity and technical challenges of the Iranian energy sector, data indicate that oil and petrochemical production facilities have been damaged as a result of previous sanctions.
The Mahshahr and Asalouyeh regions, which constitute the main nerve of the Iranian petrochemical industry, were affected, causing losses estimated at about $13 billion in the production sector.
Al-Shoubaki added that the decline in export capacity is related to the closure of some oil fields previously after the tanks were completely filled, which requires long months to restart them.
In a comparison that shows the extent of the production decline, Al-Shobaki stated that Iran was exporting approximately 6 million barrels per day in 1979, while it is currently facing difficulty in maintaining the level of two million barrels for export, with a total production capacity that may reach between two million and 4 million barrels per day in the best conditions.
Al-Shobaki stressed that the flow of Iranian oil reflects on global markets and serves American interests other than lowering oil prices, which is in the interest of importing countries, while it represents competition that affects the interests of some other producers in the region.
Only food items
US President Donald Trump had announced that the frozen Iranian funds that would be released would be used exclusively to purchase food supplies from American farmers, while Tasnim Agency reported, citing the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdel Nasser Hemmati, that there was no commitment under the signed memorandums to purchase agricultural supplies from the United States.
He stressed that “Iran is not supposed to use oil revenues to rebuild its army, but rather use the money to buy food for its people,” warning that Washington “will do what it must do if Tehran misbehaves.”
