Published on 6/30/2026
Global energy markets recorded a decline in prices following the increase in oil supplies resulting from the US-Iranian understandings. Investors’ attention is currently turning to the Qatari capital, Doha, which is hosting a meeting between the American and Iranian sides with the participation of a Qatari mediator, which contributed to reducing fears in the oil sector.
According to digital indicators, Brent crude settled near the level of $73.06 per barrel, which is the lowest level recorded before the war, and crude is heading to record its largest quarterly decline since the Corona pandemic, with a decline rate exceeding 35%.
The influx of energy supplies prompted international financial institutions, led by the American Morgan Stanley, to reduce their oil price expectations for the current and next years according to the following data:
- Brent crude prices: The corporation reduced the average price of a barrel of Brent crude for the current year to $75, compared to its previous forecast of $90.
- Tanker transit traffic: Technical data monitored the crossing of 35 oil and liquefied gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday.
- Oil surplus forecast: Estimates suggest that an oil surplus will appear in global markets by 2027, amounting to approximately 4.8 million barrels per day.
Hormuz Puzzle “Half Open”
Energy affairs expert Amer Al-Shobaki said that the Strait of Hormuz is currently described as semi-open and not completely closed, explaining that ship transit continues through specific corridors, despite the statement of the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization that the specific routes are not considered safe.
Al-Shoubaki reported that there are oil tankers moving in the waterway without appearing on radar screens or the systems of international tracking companies, indicating that the routes of these ships are sponsored and secured by the American side.
He added that previous incidents in the region caused oil to lose about 20% of its value during the past month, which is the highest loss since the Corona pandemic, pointing out that the upcoming Doha meeting contributed to the stability of prices at their current levels.
contango equation
Regarding the nature of the price structure, Al-Shoubaki explained that the markets are witnessing a technical state known as “contango,” where the spot prices of oil are lower than the futures prices by a difference that does not exceed one dollar, which reflects relative stability in the market.
The US administration seeks to reflect this decline directly on local fuel markets to ease inflationary pressures on the consumer, which affects levels of economic confidence and provides a basis for determining future interest rates, at a time when oil companies are trying to maximize their financial gains by maneuvering with their previous reserves.
At the conclusion of the economic analysis, Al-Shobaki identified two criteria for judging the stability of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz:
- Outgoing tanker movement: Tankers loaded with oil and liquefied gas to meet global market demand and stabilize prices.
- Incoming ship movement: Empty ships returning to the Gulf towards production areas, and the regularity of their movement represents an indication of the continuation of shipping and supply operations.
Oman Maritime Initiative
At the level of official positions, the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, praised the Sultanate of Oman’s announcement of providing the option of using a temporary sea lane for ships in the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the International Maritime Organization.
The statement of the General Secretariat of the Council earlier this week stated that the Omani initiative aims to launch a plan to evacuate more than 11,000 stranded sailors, to support freedom of maritime navigation and the flow of supply chains for the global economy in accordance with international law and the law of the sea.
On the other hand, Al-Budaiwi expressed the GCC countries’ rejection of Iranian allegations and threats to the movement of ships in the Strait, stressing support for efforts aimed at enhancing maritime security and reducing tension in the region.
Shipping risks
This coincided with international shipping companies facing difficulties due to the rise in insurance fees against war risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite energy markets’ optimism about the Doha negotiations, shipping companies point out that transit traffic in the strait, which is in a semi-open state, imposes additional logistical and operational costs.
This situation pushes the markets to continue hedging, until the technical meetings reach a security agreement that guarantees the safety of the transit movement of ships and tankers without the need for routes facilitated by military auspices.
