Published on 6/18/2026
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its expectations for strong growth in global demand for oil over the coming decades, stressing the absence of indications that demand will reach its peak in the foreseeable future, at a time when it raised its long-term estimates of crude consumption until 2050.
OPEC said in its “Global Oil Outlook 2026” report that global demand for oil will rise to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, compared to 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, while it expected it to reach 124 million barrels per day by 2050, up from its previous estimate of 122.9 million barrels per day.
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The organization attributed these expectations to the growing interest in energy security and its availability at reasonable prices, in addition to the expected economic growth in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, noting that recent shifts in government policies in the United States and Europe support continued dependence on oil.
OPEC noted that the spread of electric cars in Europe was slower than previous expectations, and that the amendments made by the administration of US President Donald Trump to policies to support renewable energy, electric cars, and fuel efficiency standards contributed to changing the landscape of global energy policies.
Two conflicting visions
OPEC’s vision contradicts the expectations of the International Energy Agency, which believes that global demand for oil will reach about 113 million barrels per day by the middle of the century.
On the supply side, OPEC expected US shale oil production to reach its peak by 2025, at a level of just over 9 million barrels per day, with limited growth in total US oil liquids supplies at about 400,000 barrels per day until 2030, before stabilizing after that.
The organization also suggested that the production of countries outside the OPEC Plus alliance would reach its peak during the early 2030s, calling for continued investment in the oil sector to meet future demand, and estimating the sector’s needs at about $17.7 trillion until 2050.
Slow recovery
These expectations come at a time when international financial institutions indicate that it will take several months for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels, despite the temporary agreement concluded between the United States of America and Iran.
The American bank Goldman Sachs expected that Gulf countries’ exports would return to pre-war levels by the end of next July, with crude oil production fully recovering by October, warning that shipping companies’ caution may limit the speed of resuming flows.
On the other hand, French bank BNP Paribas expected that the return of supplies to normal would take several months, even in the best scenarios, given the need to restore about 12 million barrels per day of suspended production.
As for Bank of America, it considered that removing mines and restoring navigation in the strait may extend for months, indicating that the oil market will continue to suffer from a scarcity of supply until the last quarter of 2026.
Oil prices rose strongly during the war, with Brent crude exceeding $126 a barrel in April, before falling after the announcement of the US-Iranian agreement to below $80 a barrel.
