Published on 6/17/2026
The Strait of Hormuz may resume normal operation in the coming days, but the past months have left a mark too deep for the return of ships to cross. The Iranian war not only led to a temporary disruption in energy flows, but also prompted producers and buyers to reconsider the cost of relying on one of the most important oil corridors in the world.
Bloomberg believed that the latest experience “will likely permanently change the dynamics of oil trade in the Middle East,” after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz turned from a hypothetical scenario that was limited to analysts’ models to a practical danger that has proven its ability to disrupt global energy markets.
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According to Bloomberg, the war showed “how easily Iran can paralyze the global oil market,” which reinforces traders’ awareness that reaching a preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran does not mean the risks have completely ended, in light of the continuation of many controversial issues between the two parties.
Permanent risk premium
Before the war, Asian buyers focused on price, ore quality, and shipping costs. Today, new considerations enter their calculations, including the risks of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of supply disruptions.
Bloomberg expected that:
- Buyers are seeking additional discounts on Gulf oil shipments to compensate for the risks associated with the sea lane.
- While maritime transport companies may impose higher fees as a result of higher insurance costs and the possibility of ships being subjected to delay or detention again.
Thus, geopolitical risks become part of the cost of a barrel, even after military operations subside.
Asia is abandoning over-reliance
Asian buyers constitute the main destination for Gulf oil exports, but the war has forced them to diversify their sources of supply at an unprecedented pace.
Bloomberg believed that Asian refineries will return to buying Middle Eastern oil once its normal flow resumes, but “they will hesitate to return to a situation that is excessively dependent on the region.”
Diversifying oil sources away from Hormuz is not without additional costs, because giant oil tankers loaded with American crude are forced to sail through the Cape of Good Hope, on trips that take about 55 days, that is, more than twice the time taken by shipments coming from the Gulf.
Japan stands out as a clear example of this transformation. The Japanese oil sector was built for decades on the basis of almost complete dependence on crude coming from the Gulf, as about 90% of its imports came from the region before the war, according to Bloomberg.
But this reality is beginning to change, and Reuters reported that American oil has become one of the main alternatives to Japanese refineries, along with supplies from Saudi Arabia and the UAE via routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
“We are dealing with the situation through a combination of drawing on national reserves and securing alternative sources,” said Shunichi Kito, head of the Japan Petroleum Association, adding: “We do not expect supply problems during peak summer demand.”
He pointed out that some Japanese companies also tended to purchase raw materials from Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela, Alaska, and the Russian “Sakhalin-2” project.
However, this diversification is not without additional costs. According to Quito, giant oil tankers loaded with American crude are forced to sail through the Cape of Good Hope, on trips that take about 55 days, that is, more than twice the time taken by shipments coming from the Gulf.
Producers are looking for exits
The re-accounts were not limited to buyers, but extended to major producers in the region.
Bloomberg reported that the war motivated Saudi Arabia and the UAE to accelerate plans to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE is considering constructing an additional pipeline to Fujairah, located outside the strait, while Saudi Arabia may maintain high levels of pumping through the Red Sea pipeline.
These projects reflect a growing awareness that security of supply is no longer linked only to the size of reserves, but also to the flexibility of infrastructure and its ability to overcome geographical choke points.
Although the US-Iranian agreement pushed some market indicators to decline, as the Dubai crude premium returned to levels close to those that preceded the war, according to Reuters, caution still exists regarding the speed with which navigation returns to normal.
“War risk premiums associated with transit through the Strait will continue to support prices temporarily until clear indications of safe navigation emerge,” said Vortexa’s chief market analyst, Xavier Tang.
According to Bloomberg, the Gulf will remain the center of the global oil industry for decades to come, but the recent war has unequivocally revealed that excessive reliance on one region to secure energy needs carries risks that go beyond traditional price calculations, a lesson that buyers and producers seem to have already begun to translate into long-term investment and commercial decisions.
