Published on 6/15/2026
Analysts said that the temporary agreement between the United States and Iran may open the way for the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and oil and gas flows, but it does not mean that energy trade will return to normal quickly, as it may take months to restore the confidence of shipowners, insurance companies, and refineries after the turmoil that accompanied the American-Israeli war on Iran.
Bloomberg quoted the chief investment officer at Carobar Capital, Haris Khurshid, as saying that markets tend to treat the reopening of the strait as if it were a simple matter, while in reality it is an extended process, adding that physical flows can resume quickly, but confidence does not usually return at the same pace.
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Khorshid said that reopening the strait and normalizing trade flows are two different issues, because many buyers have spent months securing alternative routes, suppliers and stocks, and are unlikely to immediately return to the previous route through Hormuz once it reopens.
Philip Nova analyst, Priyanka Sachdeva, said that the end of the conflict and the gradual return of oil flows through the Strait does not mean that the previous damage can be reversed overnight, noting that the damage includes the oil infrastructure and the economic pressure that energy importing countries have been exposed to due to the high cost within months.
Shipping confidence
Saxo Markets chief investment strategist, Sharu Chanana, said that markets may react smoothly to the headlines of the reopening of Hormuz, but the operational reality may be more complex due to demining, insurance costs, port congestion, and the risks of a return of geopolitical tensions.
Markets analyst at IG Australia, Tony Sycamore, said that it is difficult to see crude oil falling significantly in the near term, because countries will use the reopening of the strait to compensate for the shortage in stocks and replenish strategic oil reserves, at a time when prices had already fallen during the recent sessions in anticipation of an agreement.
Markets analyst at XS.com, Linh Tran, said that it is too early to rule out the risks of a rise in oil, because the negotiation path has not yet turned into a stable, implementable agreement, adding that strong demand in conjunction with a slower-than-expected recovery in supplies could give prices new support.
Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, said that the US-Iranian agreement appears to be based on relatively shaky ground, noting that Iran’s demands regarding reconstruction, obtaining funds from the United States, and freeing frozen funds may turn into points of contention.
President and founder of SVB Energy International, Sarah Khashuri, said that many importers and countries will reconsider logistics, suppliers and refinery adjustments, anticipating long-term changes in energy markets after the crisis.
Vortexa’s chief market analyst, Xavier Tang, said that the completion of the agreement and the acceptance of insurance companies to cover the ships will first lead to an increase in the transit of empty tankers, then the resumption of crude production, and then the return of refineries to work, while the chief economist at OCBC, Selena Ling, said that the full recovery of production may take a longer time depending on the speed of repair of damaged facilities or the restarting of closed fields.
The importance of Hormuz
The US Energy Information Administration describes the Strait of Hormuz as one of the most important oil corridors in the world, with about 20 million barrels of oil passing through it in 2024, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
The International Energy Agency says that about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products crossed the strait in 2025, equivalent to approximately 25% of seaborne oil trade, and most of the oil heading from the Gulf to Asia passes through it, where China, India and Japan are among the largest importers.
The agency explains that the alternatives to Hormuz are limited, as only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational lines that can divert part of crude exports away from the strait, with available capacity estimated at between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day, which is much less than the total usual flows through the corridor.
The importance of the Strait is not limited to oil, as the International Energy Agency says that about 93% of Qatari liquefied natural gas exports and 96% of the UAE’s liquefied natural gas exports pass through Hormuz, representing about 19% of global liquefied natural gas trade.
Chinese demand and the inflation dilemma
In a related context, Bloomberg Economics said that the US-Iranian agreement may pave the way for a recovery in Chinese demand for oil, which may restore inflationary pressures globally if energy flows remain restricted, after the decline in China’s crude imports during the crisis played a role similar to a shock absorber in the energy market.
Bloomberg economists Zhang Xu and David Chu wrote that any recovery in Chinese demand for oil, especially if flows remain limited, may tighten global energy market conditions, renew inflationary pressures, and complicate the task of central banks, at a time when Iranian oil shipments to China declined to about 160,000 barrels per day in May from 1.8 million barrels per day in February, according to data collected by the agency.
China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry called for maintaining the ceasefire and reopening the sea lanes, saying that the war has put pressure on supply chains, the trade system, and the stability of global energy supplies, and that dialogue and negotiation are the right path to settling the Iranian file.
