Heat waves threaten 4.5% of India’s gross product economy

Recent studies have warned that escalating heat waves may become one of the biggest economic challenges facing India in the coming years, with increasing losses in productivity and working hours and rising pressures on sectors that rely heavily on physical labour.

Estimates from the McKinsey Global Institute indicate that rising temperatures and humidity could threaten between 2.5% and 4.5% of India’s GDP by 2030, at a time when a large part of the economy depends on the construction, manufacturing, agriculture and logistics sectors.

A University of Chicago study also showed that the production of Indian factories declines by about 2% with every one degree Celsius rise in temperature, as a result of lower worker productivity and higher rates of absenteeism from work.

The Lancet Countdown to Climate and Health initiative estimated that about 247 billion potential working hours would be lost in India during 2024 due to heat exposure, an increase of 124% compared to the 1990s average.

These repercussions are clearly reflected in a number of industrial sectors, as factory owners in the city of Kanpur, the center of the Indian leather industry, reported a decline in productivity and a rise in cases of heat stress among workers as temperatures reached 46 degrees Celsius.

Actions to adapt

Construction companies were also forced to adjust work schedules to avoid the noon hours, while industrial and service companies began providing additional cooling systems, drinking water, and rest periods to reduce the impact of the heat on workers.

Last April, the Indian government issued directives to companies to reorganize working hours and provide shaded areas and means of protection for workers, and some states also resorted to offering summer vacation for schools or switching to online education.

Experts believe that India has become a clear model of how climate change has become a structural economic constraint, especially in developing economies that still depend on millions of workers in field work or in non-air-conditioned environments.

Academic estimates warn that India may become the country most affected by extreme heat in the world by 2050 if global temperatures continue to rise, increasing the need for extensive investments in infrastructure, cooling and urban planning to confront increasing economic risks.