Published 05.45
Armenia, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has embarked on a pro-Western path, a development that has greatly irritated Moscow.
But the leader has also become a polarizing force in the country.
Support for incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has surged in recent months and his ruling party is expected to sweep home victory in today’s Armenian parliamentary election.
Since Pashinyan came to power in 2018 after popular protests, the relationship with Russia has deteriorated significantly. Now there are concerns about extensive Russian influence in the election.
Jakob Hedenskog, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy, however, assesses that Russia does not believe it can influence the election itself. However, the giant country can try to reduce the people’s trust in the authorities, he says.
– I think that Russia wants to influence confidence in Pashinyan. Russia wants the people to distrust the process itself and be dissatisfied with the way the election was conducted.
Russia has compared Armenia’s EU ambitions to the situation that led to the Ukraine war, and recently recalled its ambassador to Armenia in protest at the country’s ties to the EU.
Populist politician
Jakob Hedenskog points out that Pasjinjan is not flawless. Among other things, his way of handling the opposition is problematic.
“Pasjinjan today is a significantly more populist, polarizing political figure than he was when he came out,” says Hedenskog.
The prime minister has pushed for a conflict with the Armenian Apostolic Church and he has accused his main opponent, opposition leader and billionaire Samvel Karapetian, of crimes. He has also described Sunday’s election as a choice between lasting peace with Azerbaijan and a return to war.
– It is an example of how polarizing his message is. He has said that if he doesn’t win the election, there will be war in September – very specifically. It is an unnecessary polarization, says Jakob Hedenskog.
Disappointed in Russia
Many Armenians are disappointed with Russia, which did not come to Armenia’s aid when neighboring Azerbaijan seized the Nagorno-Karabakh region in a 2023 military offensive.
And Russia is not interested in good neighborly relations with former Soviet republics such as Armenia, Moldova or Ukraine, but wants the countries to be ruled by corrupt elites who are close to Russia, says Jakob Hedenskog.
– Moscow wants them to depend on Russia for energy and security, and for them to fear that Russia could attack them. It is not Russia’s goal that they should develop and become prosperous and stable democracies. However, that is the EU’s goal.
