Published On 6/5/2026
The World Trade Organization has warned of signs of a slowdown in the growth of global merchandise trade, despite the resilience shown by commercial activity during the first half of 2026 in the face of the repercussions of the war in the Middle East.
The organization believed that the increasing demand for electronic components associated with artificial intelligence technologies partly contributed to reducing the negative effects of the war on global trade.
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Commodity Trade Index values above 100 are associated with higher than normal trade volumes, while values below 100 indicate lower than normal trade volumes.
The current reading of the merchandise trade gauge is 101.7, slightly lower than its value last January, which was 102.3, indicating that merchandise trade growth has begun to slow.
Two growth scenarios
The report issued by the World Trade Organization entitled “Global Trade Forecasts and Statistics” on March 19 expected a growth in merchandise trade of 1.9% in 2026 according to the basic scenario, which assumes that energy prices will return to their usual levels before the Iran war.
However, the report expected that growth in commodity trade would decline to reach 1.4% under another scenario based on a continued rise in energy prices as the war in the Middle East continues.
The World Trade Organization report explained that continued investment in artificial intelligence may add 0.5 percentage points to the growth rate in global commodity trade.
The next WTO trade outlook is scheduled for release in October 2026.
These estimates come at a time when global trade faces dual pressures from geopolitical tensions and rising trade barriers.
