Europe records the first decline in air passenger traffic since Corona economy

European and international data showed that the repercussions of the Israeli-American war on Iran began to put pressure on the global aviation sector, after European airports recorded the first annual decline in the number of passengers since the beginning of the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, while demand for airlines in the Middle East fell at the largest rate among the regions.

The Airports Council International Association in Europe said that passenger traffic through the European airport network decreased by 0.7% during April 2026 compared to the same month last year, in the first annual decline since April 2021, when the sector began to restore its activity after the pandemic.

The report explained that the unrest resulting from the war in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices affected travel and air transport on the continent.

Director General of the Association, Olivier Jankovic, said: “While we were already witnessing the return of passenger traffic growth to normal levels after the strong recovery that followed the pandemic, geopolitical instability, especially as a result of the war in the Middle East, is casting a shadow on growth and revealing a significant discrepancy in performance across markets.”

The European decline comes as data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed that global demand for air travel fell by 3.4% in April compared to the same period last year, but it would have risen by 1.2% if the Middle East region was excluded from the calculations.

According to IATA, demand for international flights fell by 5.3%, while domestic demand remained stable without significant growth, and the global seat occupancy factor declined to 83.1%.

Negative zone

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, “The sharp decline of 46.6% in demand for airlines in the Middle East due to the war in the region was so significant that it pulled global demand into negative territory at 3.4%.”

Walsh added: “The air transport situation remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing up ticket prices. Forward schedule data also shows a decline in supply over the coming months, indicating that airlines are trying to balance higher fuel costs with weak demand.”

IATA data showed that airlines in the Middle East were the most affected, as demand for their international flights declined by 48.1% compared to April 2025, while operating capacity decreased by 38.4%, and the seat occupancy rate declined to 70.1%.

Despite these losses, IATA indicated that the pace of decline slowed compared to March with the entry into force of a fragile ceasefire.

On the other hand, European airlines continued to record limited growth in demand, amounting to 0.9%, and demand for direct flights between Europe and Asia increased by 15.3%, with part of the travel traffic shifting away from routes that pass through the Middle East.

Global meeting

The eyes of the aviation sector are turning to Rio de Janeiro, where the heads of global airlines will meet between June 6 and 8 at the IATA Annual General Assembly and the World Air Transport Summit, to discuss what Reuters described as the biggest crisis facing the sector since the pandemic.

The war on Iran raised the cost of aviation fuel, forced companies to change flight routes, and put their ability to pass on the increased cost to travelers by raising ticket prices to a difficult test.

IATA represents more than 370 airlines, accounting for about 85% of global air traffic. Before the war on Iran, it was expected that airlines would achieve record net profits of $41 billion in 2026, with a net profit margin of 3.9%.

Reuters reported that executives and analysts expect these expectations to be lowered during the summit, with discussions focusing on rising fuel prices and supply concerns, airspace disruptions in the Middle East, worsening aircraft delivery delays, and the extent to which companies are moving away from their climate goals.

Airlines have already begun raising prices, reducing unprofitable routes and preserving liquidity until the pressures subside, which raises questions about their ability to reach IATA’s goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, in light of the high cost of sustainable aviation fuel and limited supplies.