Published on 5/30/2026
An article in the British newspaper The Telegraph revealed profound and dramatic transformations within the power structure in Iran, specifically within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, where the authors believe that the West is still ignoring a dangerous restructuring taking place in the heart of the regime, led by an undeclared alliance between influential security and military figures that may redraw the balances of power within Tehran.
The article by writers Kasra Arabi and Saeed Golkar in the newspaper started from the basic idea that Western analyzes of the Iranian situation, especially after the recent leadership changes and the absence of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – who was assassinated at the beginning of the American-Israeli war on Iran – and then the disappearance of his son and successor Mojtaba from sight, remain superficial and inaccurate in understanding the real centers of power.
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Initially, the idea was promoted that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf had become the new “strong man” in Iran, but the article argued that this image was misleading, and that Qalibaf was in fact being increasingly marginalized within the circles of influence, and was suffering from a loss of trust even within the networks of the Revolutionary Guard itself.
On the other hand, the name of Ahmed Vahidi stands out as the new de facto leader of the Revolutionary Guards, which is confirmed – according to the article – by Western intelligence sources. However, despite his central position, Vahidi faces a fundamental challenge represented by his lack of a solid base of influence within the younger generations of the Guards and the Basij, especially after his years away from direct leadership due to his holding government positions.
The return of Jafari
Here a more important and complex element enters the scene, which is the return of former Major General Muhammad Ali Jaafari to the circle of influence – according to the article – as Jaafari is considered one of the most prominent architects of the strategic transformation within the Revolutionary Guard during his previous years of leadership, because he supervised its restructuring through decentralization, a model that enabled the Guard to adapt to war and internal turmoil.
Jaafari also had a pivotal role in establishing intelligence services and cyber capabilities and developing asymmetric warfare methods, as well as supervising the suppression of major protests that shook the regime in 2009 and 2017-2018, according to the authors.
But Jaafari’s most important role – according to the article – is to establish the “Middle Circle”, an ideological social network aimed at mobilizing young people loyal to the regime within thousands of small groups spread throughout the neighborhoods.
He started An undeclared alliance is formed between Ahmed Wahidi and Muhammad Ali Jaafari, based on the exchange of political and strategic interests
This network, which is supposed to include millions of members, is used not only for ideological mobilization purposes, but also to influence elections and reshape the internal political mood, which makes it a crucial tool of influence within the Iranian regime.
Leaks and conclusions contained in the article indicate that this network played a role in supporting certain candidates and excluding others during the elections, which reflects a shift in the tools for managing power inside Iran, from traditional agencies to deeper and more hidden social organizing networks.
An undeclared alliance
In this context, the article sees that an undeclared alliance has begun to form between Ahmed Vahidi and Muhammad Ali Jaafari, based on the exchange of political and strategic interests, because Vahidi needs Jaafari’s experience and wide network to secure a support base within the Revolutionary Guards and the ideological youth, while Jaafari takes advantage of Vahidi’s current position to enhance his influence and marginalize his opponents, led by Qalibaf.
The article portrays Qalibaf as a symbol of the “pragmatic elite” movement within the regime, but at the same time he is besieged by suspicions of corruption and family behavior that have affected his image, making him a target for criticism among the new, more hard-line generations within the Guard.
The article concludes that this alliance between Vahidi and Jaafari does not merely represent a personal rapprochement, but rather reflects a deeper restructuring within the structure of the Revolutionary Guard, based on the rise of a more stringent and organized ideological current, relying on youth mobilization and expanding networks of social control, rather than traditional bureaucracy.
If this approach succeeds, Iran will witness a gradual transition towards a more centralized and ideological model within the Revolutionary Guard, with the empowerment of the younger, more extremist generations, and a decline in the influence of the old pragmatic trends, which may be reflected not only on internal policy, but also on Iran’s regional behavior and its security and military tools.
Thus, the article presents a picture of Iran quietly rearranging its power centers from within, away from traditional Western media coverage, but according to dynamics that may be more influential in the future and stability of the regime.
