How did the Kyiv drones hit the Russian oil nerve in the Baltics? | economy

The Gulf of Finland witnessed an unprecedented decline in maritime traffic after the recent Ukrainian attacks that targeted Russian oil ports in the Leningrad region, in a development that restored an atmosphere of military tension to the Baltic region, and opened the door to Russian fears of a broader escalation with neighboring European countries and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Al Jazeera’s correspondent, Saur Schug, from Leningrad Province, monitored a scene that he described as “not seen in the Gulf of Finland since World War II.” The Gulf, which was teeming with oil tankers and commercial ships, seemed almost empty except for a limited number of ships, after the seizures of what are known as Russian “shadow ships” in the Baltic Sea, in addition to Ukrainian drone attacks on the largest Russian commercial and oil ports overlooking the Gulf.

The captain of the boat – which was carrying the Al Jazeera team – said that the movement of ships across the Gulf declined significantly following the attacks, at a time when unofficial data confirms that the strikes caused damage to the ports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk and Vyborg, and caused a temporary paralysis in their work, which led to a decline in Russian oil exports through those ports.

Sources told Al Jazeera that oil pipelines heading to Western ports are full, which threatens to stop oil production in a number of Siberian facilities, as a result of the decline in the ports’ export capacity and the damage to most of the oil refineries in the European part of Russia.

Russian political and economic circles do not hide their concern about the repercussions of targeting oil infrastructure on the Russian economy and the global energy market, especially in light of the global markets’ increasing need for Russian oil with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

On Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced, in a statement, that Moscow would launch “systematic” attacks on military industry facilities and decision-making and leadership centers in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called on foreign citizens, employees of foreign missions, and representatives of international organizations to leave Kiev immediately, and also called on Ukrainian citizens to stay away from military installations and government buildings.

Many parties will reap gains

In this context, Director of the Institute for the Development of the Modern State, Dmitry Solonikov, said that “the entire world may ostensibly benefit from purchasing Russian oil and gas with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” but he pointed out that “several parties will reap gains from the aggravation of the global crisis and preventing consumers from obtaining Russian oil and gas.”

Solonnikov added that the rise in energy prices “does not represent a major problem for Russia,” considering that Moscow has alternatives to shift the trends of oil and gas exports.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian attacks increased tension in the Finnish Gulf and the Baltic region, after Moscow accused Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of direct involvement by allowing Ukrainian drones to use the airspace of these countries while targeting the Leningrad region.

Russia issued strong warnings to its neighbors, stressing that it had set up a “target bank” for its forces in anticipation of repeated attacks.

For her part, Tatiana Romanova, head of the department at Saint Petersburg University, said that the Russians have come to realize that the Baltic Sea “has transformed from an area of ​​regional cooperation and dialogue into an area of ​​conflict,” warning that the greatest danger is an uncontrolled escalation.

The report indicated that the city of Vyborg, located on the Finnish border, was among the Ukrainian targets. It is a city over which Russia and Finland exchanged sovereignty several times before Moscow finally annexed it at the end of World War II.

Today, Vyborg has once again become a forward position in any potential confrontation with NATO, in light of the escalation of incitement and mutual threats between Russia and its Western opponents, amid fears of the expansion of the conflict in the Baltic region.

Since February 24, 2022, Russia has continued its military operation in Ukraine, with the condition for ending it being that Kiev abandons joining Western military entities, which Kiev considers interference in its affairs.