Published On 5/16/2026
The US administration tried to calm global markets’ fears of a prolonged energy crisis, after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz “will resume as soon as possible, and certainly at the latest during this summer,” despite the continuing tensions related to the US-Israeli war on Iran.
In statements to CNBC, reported by Anadolu Agency, Wright described the current situation in the strait as a “temporary disruption,” at a time when warnings are increasing that global oil stocks are approaching critical levels as supplies coming from the Gulf continue to be disrupted.
The US minister’s statements come as energy markets are under increasing pressure as a result of the blockade imposed on Iranian ports since April 13, and Tehran responded by regulating the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy arteries in the world.
Stocks are eroding
CNBC reported that global oil inventories are declining at a “record pace” to compensate for supply disruptions, while the market is approaching levels that financial institutions have described as disturbing to the stability of global supply chains.
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that “reserve margins that are shrinking rapidly amid continuing unrest may herald new price jumps in the future,” especially with the approaching summer demand season.
According to estimates by the Swiss bank UBS, global inventories amounted to slightly more than 8 billion barrels at the end of February, before falling to about 7.8 billion barrels at the end of April.
The bank expects inventories to approach the level of 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May if demand continues at current levels.
JPMorgan also warned that the actually usable portion of these reserves does not exceed about 800 million barrels, because the largest portion is required to maintain the operation of pipelines, tanks, and the logistical infrastructure.
“The system is not collapsing because oil is disappearing, but because the flow network no longer has sufficient operational scale,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at the bank.
Prices likely to rise
CNBC explained that Rapidan Energy expects oil product stocks to reach critical levels by July or August if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
JPMorgan also expected that global inventories would fall to about 6.8 billion barrels by next September if the closure continues.
Rapidan Energy said that the global economy may “freeze” if the transportation infrastructure becomes unable to obtain fuel “at any price,” noting that the markets will likely witness sharp rises in prices before reaching that stage.
The company’s analysts added that the rise in prices will lead to a “severe economic contraction” as a result of the decline in demand, suggesting that this phase will begin “before the third quarter of 2026.”
Oil companies warn
In the same context, Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, said that commercial stocks, strategic reserves, and transit oil tankers helped mitigate the impact of supply disruptions during March and April.
But he warned that commercial stocks “will eventually decline to levels where they cannot continue as a source of supply.”
“We expect that as the strait continues to be closed, we will continue to see prices rise in the market,” he added.
Iranian regulation of transit
On the other hand, Anadolu Agency quoted the head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian Parliament, Ibrahim Azizi, as saying that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be limited to “commercial ships and parties that cooperate with Iran.”
Azizi explained that the Iranian parliament is working on a new mechanism to regulate traffic through the strait “within the framework of ensuring Iranian national sovereignty and the security of international trade.”
He pointed out that the crossing will take place via a “specific route,” with fees charged for the “specialized services” provided within the new mechanism.
These developments come as fears grow within the markets that the Hormuz crisis will turn into a permanent pressure point on energy prices, inflation, and global growth, especially with a large portion of global oil and gas trade relying on passage through the strait.
