Does the end of OPEC begin in Vienna? | economy

At a moment described as one of the most sensitive in the history of the OPEC+ alliance, attention is turning to an upcoming meeting in the Austrian capital, Vienna, amid deep turmoil hitting the global energy market, and geopolitical changes that cast a shadow on the cohesion of one of the most important oil blocs in the world.

A report by Al Jazeera correspondent from Vienna, Issa Taibi, confirms that the meeting comes in exceptional circumstances, after the repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption it caused in global oil flows, in addition to the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC membership, a development that raised broad questions about the future of production balances within the organization.

In an analytical reading, Heinz Gartner, an academic at the University of Vienna, believes that OPEC is facing double pressures today:

• Internal issues related to quota and production disputes.
• External factors resulting from political and economic tensions, including American pressures.

Warning that these challenges may deepen the possibilities of division despite the continued strength of the OPEC Plus alliance.

The report reviews the historical path of the organization since its founding in 1960, when it came as a tool to balance the dominance of major oil companies, before it went through pivotal stages, most notably the oil embargo in 1973, and the crisis of the detention of oil ministers in Vienna in 1975 during the “Carlos” incident, which constituted one of the most tense moments in the organization’s history.

Despite the pivotal roles played by the major producing countries, led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Algeria, the withdrawal of the UAE – one of the most prominent producers in the region – raises fears of an imbalance in the quota system and the possibility of increasing production outside controls, which may put pressure on global prices.

In the same context, Vasiliy Astro, a researcher at the Vienna Research Institute, points out that the rise of American shale oil has gradually reduced OPEC’s ability to fully control the market, suggesting that the organization’s influence will decline further if high prices continue, thus encouraging non-member producers to increase their production.

The report also quoted statements by former US President Donald Trump, who considered that any disagreements within OPEC might reflect positively on reducing energy prices for consumers.

Between the closure of a strategic strait, internal withdrawals, and increasing international pressure, the OPEC Plus alliance is facing a new existential test, as it is not only a matter of managing oil quotas, but rather a complete repositioning on the global energy map, at a time when questions are rising about the organization’s ability to maintain its cohesion in a world more turbulent than ever before.