Modern military confrontations are no longer decided only by missiles and aircraft, but are also managed through torrents of data from space and complex industrial supply lines that extend across continents.
At the heart of this transformation, the Chinese role emerges as a decisive factor – albeit indirect – in the balance of the conflict between the United States and Iran, according to analysts.
Read also
list of 2 itemsend of list
Recent reports and analyzes published by American newspapers reveal Washington’s growing concern about the expansion of the Chinese role in the raging conflict in the Middle East, whether by providing sensitive intelligence data from satellites, or by feeding Iranian supply chains with dual-use materials and components, which indirectly enhances Tehran’s military capabilities.
Satellites
In a report by its Chinese affairs correspondent, Chun Han Wong, the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese satellite images of the conflict zone in the Middle East have flowed in abundance since the start of the American-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, which may give Tehran a field advantage.
This American concern did not come out of nowhere; The Chinese artificial intelligence company, Mizer Vision, revealed on social media platforms its ability to track the movements of American aircraft carriers, F-22 stealth fighters, and B-52 strategic bombers, using advanced algorithms to analyze space data.
The United States has imposed an indefinite ban on the circulation of commercial images over Iran, but Chinese companies are not subject to these restrictions, which means that the Iranians still get the data they need, while the general public is denied it.
According to the report, US Defense Department (Pentagon) assessments published last December confirm the existence of “commercial exchanges” between Chinese-based satellite companies and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Although the nature of these relationships or the extent of their direct impact on military operations is not clear, Republican Member John Moolenaar – Chairman of the Committee on China in the US House of Representatives – warned of the possibility that this commercial satellite data could be exploited to target American forces and cause loss of life, which is considered an urgent threat.
American restrictions
In this regard, an additional factor emerges that complicates the scene, which is that American restrictions do not apply to Chinese companies. While an American company stopped providing satellite images of the conflict zone based on a government request, Chinese companies continue to provide these services without similar restrictions, according to the newspaper.
The report quoted Bill Greer, co-founder of Common Space, a non-profit organization for satellite services, as saying, “The United States has imposed an indefinite ban on the circulation of commercial images over Iran, but Chinese companies are not subject to these restrictions, which means that the Iranians still obtain the data they need, while the general public is prohibited from doing so.”
Selective publishing
Greer also warns of the danger of “selective dissemination” of these images, saying that this practice may “provide inaccurate or partial accounts, even though satellite images are usually considered a very reliable source.”
These developments come at a time when the remote sensing sector in China is witnessing rapid growth, as the Wall Street Journal reports that Beijing possesses more than 640 commercial satellites, of which it launched 120 units last year alone, with plans to expand this network in a way that allows imaging of any location in the world within minutes.
In the past, the United States accused the Chinese satellite technology company Changguang of helping parties hostile to it – such as the Houthis in Yemen and Russian fighters in Ukraine – allegations that the company denied.
Changguang operates the largest remote sensing satellite constellation in China, known as Jilin-1, which includes more than 150 satellites.
The company says it plans to expand its network to include 300 satellites, and develop the ability to produce images of any location around the world in just 10 minutes.
According to a 2024 report by the US consulting firm OTH Intelligence, these growing capabilities mean that the Chinese military “is now more capable of locating, tracking and targeting US assets” – including mobile platforms, such as naval ships – making concealing military movements more difficult.
Beijing follows a “categorical denial” strategy; It does not ship ready-made combat platforms, but rather passes vital components under civilian customs codes
Dual-use materials
In parallel with this space dimension, an article published by the National Interest website highlights a different but complementary aspect of the Wall Street Journal report, which is the supply chains that connect China to Iranian military capabilities.
In his article, writer Christopher Nye revealed the loopholes that China exploits to support Iranian military industries through “dual-use” materials, which makes Chinese diplomatic commitments to stop arms exports to Tehran literally worthless.
The article explained that Beijing is following a strategy of “categorical denial.” It does not ship ready-made combat platforms, but rather passes vital components under civilian customs codes.
According to the newspaper, the sodium perchlorate substance that was recently seized on the Iranian container ship “Tosca” after it left the Chinese port of Gaolan is the most prominent example. They are officially classified as civilian fireworks, but in fact they are the primary component of solid ballistic missile fuel.
Useless threat
According to European intelligence estimates, one shipment of this material could be enough to produce hundreds of ballistic missiles, which reflects the extent of the indirect impact of Chinese exports on Iranian military capabilities.
Nye – a non-resident researcher at the Jamestown Foundation, which specializes in defense policies, based in Washington, DC – pointed out that the supply chain for drones, such as the Shahed 136, depends entirely on Chinese industrial complexes that provide piston engines, radar altimeters, and programmable electronic chips.
Small enterprises
These components do not come from major government factories, but rather from small institutions in regions such as Shenzhen and Fujian, which possess superior ability to maneuver, taking advantage of the slowness of bureaucratic procedures in Washington. It dissolves itself and re-establishes itself under new names immediately after it is included in US sanctions lists, which makes individual sanctions ineffective.
Nye believes that US President Donald Trump’s threat last week to impose 50% customs duties on any country that supplies Iran with weapons will not work, because the problem does not lie in shipments of conventional weapons, but rather in the raw materials that go into their manufacture.
According to the National Interest, Beijing is adopting a precise strategy based on a narrow definition of the concept of weapons, which allows it to deny any direct involvement, despite the continued flow of vital materials.
Nye believes that this approach “is not an outright lie, but rather a carefully formulated truth, but without practical value.”
He proposes an alternative model based on linking customs duties and secondary sanctions not to arms shipments, but to the extent to which China takes measures against specific companies that practice these activities, similar to what happened in the file of chemicals linked to the manufacture of the drug fentanyl.
Trump goes to Beijing this time in a “much weaker position” than he has been in since his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea 6 months ago.
Trump’s visit
For its part, Bloomberg Agency discussed in a report by its correspondent Jenny Marsh the repercussions of the war in Iran on US-Chinese relations, at a time when Beijing is preparing to receive President Donald Trump for his first visit in nearly a decade, amid a noticeable shift in the balance of global economic power in favor of China.
The report stated that Trump is going to Beijing this time in a “much weaker position” than he was in since his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in South Korea 6 months ago.
Bloomberg attributed this weakness in Trump’s position to his failure to assess the responses of his opponents, whether through the trade war with China or the military escalation with Iran.
While Washington faces strategic pressure, Beijing appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the world’s shift toward alternative energy, which it dominates
Marsh indicated in her analytical report that the conflict against Iran turned into a “global economic war” after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a jump in energy prices that forced Washington to ease sanctions on Russia and Iran to ensure the flow of oil supplies.
On the other hand, China – according to the American agency – was able to absorb the shock thanks to the “worst-case scenario” strategy adopted by President Xi Jinping years ago, achieving 80% energy self-sufficiency through huge investment in coal, renewable energy, and electric cars.
This redraws the global balance of power in its favor ahead of the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi.
